Happy Dinger Tuesday!
Read on for my nine MLB Home Run Picks Today for Tuesday, July 21, including picks for Dodgers vs Phillies and Athletics vs Diamondbacks.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs Phillies
This is a lefty-lefty spot, but it's actually a plus matchup for Harper.
Justin Wrobleski has been good this season, but he's struggled with lefty power, allowing a 1.57 HR/9 this season and a 1.31 HR/9 last season.
There is a chance of postponement due to rain, but I think the game plays, and if it does, the weather should be a plus for hitting.
I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Pick: Bryce Harper Home Run
Rays vs Blue Jays
Mullins started off the season slow, but he's been in good form recently, with nine bombs since the beginning of last month.
The matchup is below average for lefty power against Kevin Gausman, but this ballpark is a big upgrade.
I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Pick: Cedric Mullins Home Run
Padres vs Braves
I'm going back to the well on Machado.
The matchup against Reynaldo Lopez is average for power, and although the wind will be blowing in, the temps will be around 88 degrees, so the weather shouldn’t be bad for hitting.
Machado hasn't been great this season, but power hasn't been an issue.
I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Pick: Manny Machado Home Run
Giants vs Royals
We don't have a huge sample size of Luinder Avila as a starting pitcher, but I have him as close to an average matchup for lefty power.
This ballpark is an upgrade for power over San Francisco, and the weather should be around neutral for hitting.
Devers has been in great form recently, and I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Rafael Devers Home Run
White Sox vs Rangers
This is a great spot for Montgomery, and these odds are far too high.
Kumar Rocker isn't a bad pitcher, but he struggles heavily with lefty power, allowing a high 1.70 HR/9 this season.
This ballpark is a downgrade for Montgomery, but he is one of the best home run hitters in the league, and there's no way he should be priced this high in a plus spot.
I have the true odds here around +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Colson Montgomery Home Run
Nationals vs Rockies
These odds may be low, but they aren't low enough.
Michael Lorenzen has been a gas can for lefty power this season, allowing a high 1.81 HR/9.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather should be great for hitting, with temps in the high-80s and wind blowing out at 11 MPH.
I have the true odds here under +200, making this a great bet.
Pick: James Wood Home Run
Cardinals vs Angels
Matthew Liberatore has historically been a bad matchup for righty power, but he's struggled this season, allowing a 1.38 HR/9.
The weather in Los Angeles should be good for hitting, with temps in the low-80s and wind blowing out at six MPH.
I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run
Reds vs Mariners
Bleday has slowed down since his hot start to the season, but the power is still there.
Luis Castillo has been crushed by lefty power this season, allowing 1.76 HR/9.
I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: JJ Bleday Home Run
Athletics vs Diamondbacks
This ballpark is a downgrade for Langeliers, but the spot and odds more than make up for it.
Kohl Drake is making his first MLB start and was a gas can for power in the minors this season.
Langeliers is one of the best home run hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
