We've got action on four games today, with plenty of picks.
Read on for my 4 favorite MLB home run picks today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cardinals vs Mets
This spot is great for all of the Cardinals' power hitters, and their odds are far too high. Christian Scott has been above average at suppressing power in his short career, but he's due for some massive negative regression.
He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, allowing a career 47.4% fly-ball rate along with average hard contact and below-average strikeouts. He grades out as a plus matchup for power to both sides of the plate, and the conditions are going to be rough for him today.
The weather in New York should be great for hitting, with temps in the low-90s during game time and wind blowing out at 9 mph. I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Pick: Nolan Gorman Home Run
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Twins vs Tigers
Buxton is just becoming an auto-play at this point until he slows down. He's got 20 bombs in 57 games this season, including 3 in the past 4 games and 12 since the beginning of May.
The matchup vs. Keider Montero is a plus, and the weather should be good in Detroit, with temps in the high-80s. I have the true odds here around +230, making this a great bet.
Pick: Byron Buxton Home Run
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Rangers vs Royals
This matchup isn't great, but the weather and odds more than make up for it. The weather in Kansas City should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the high 80s during game time and a massive 17 mph wind blowing out.
The matchup vs. Kumar Rocker is average for HRs, but given the weather, there is no way that Witt should be priced this high. I have the true odds around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
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Mariners vs Orioles
This spot is great for Henderson, and these odds are too high. Bryan Woo has been a plus matchup for lefty power in his career, allowing a 1.30 HR/9.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for lefty power, and the weather should be great for hitting, with temps in the low-90s, wind blowing out slightly, and good humidity. I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Gunnar Henderson Home Run
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