I'm on four home run props for today's full MLB slate, targeting the following games: Rays vs Red Sox, Rockies vs Phillies, Angels vs Blue Jays, and Braves vs Dodgers.
Read on for my Home Run Picks and find out why I'm on Wilyer Abreu, Kyle Schwarber, Mike Trout and Austin Riley.
MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:35 PM | |
  | 2:35 PM | |
  | 2:37 PM | |
  | 5:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Pick
Wilyer Abreu has some good odds today and the spot is a good one.
While Nick Martinez has been better at suppressing power in recent years, a lot of that has been out of the bullpen and he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
The weather over in Fenway is a plus for hitting and I have the true odds around +400 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu 1+ Home Runs (+468)
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Rockies vs Phillies Home Run Pick
I generally don't bet Schwarber, especially at these odds, but the spot is far too good.
He's been incredible recently, and Tomoyuki Sugano is a complete gas can for lefty power.
He has allowed over a 2 HR/9 in his career to lefties, and the weather over in Philly is good for hitting.
I have the true odds on Schwarber around +200.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Home Runs (+235)
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Angels vs Blue Jays Home Run Pick
It didn't work great yesterday, but going right back to the power righties for the Angels.
Spencer Miles is opening which isn't a great matchup, but Eric Lauer has been a gas can this season for power allowing a massive 2.3 HR/9.
He can't seem to do anything right and the ballpark is a plus for power.
I have the true odds on Trout under +300 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Mike Trout 1+ Home Runs (+321)
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Braves vs Dodgers Home Run Pick
Austin Riley hasn't been the same hitter the last few years, but the power is still there and the spot is a good one.
Justin Wrobleski hasn't allowed a ton of bombs in his career, but a lot of that was out of the bullpen and he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds on Riley around +375 making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Austin Riley o0.5 Home Runs (+410)
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