One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run prop picks and Dinger Tuesday predictions for July 2
(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)
MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks (July 2)
Yankee Stadium is a top-five ballpark for home runs, with weather expected to boost home runs by 6% tonight. That, combined with the power hitters available in this game, make it an excellent spot to target on Dinger Tuesday.
While the Yankees have the more appealing hitters, I actually prefer to target the Reds today. Yankees starter Luis Gil has the (much) higher fly ball rate of the two starters at over 45%, and he seems to have hit a rookie wall. He's allowed 12 earned runs (including two home runs) in his past 5 2/3 innings. His HR/FB ratio of 7.5% also suggests he'd been lucky earlier in the season, with that regression hitting in recent starts.
India is one of the few Reds' hitters with his best odds on FanDuel, which makes him a logical starting point. He has just five home runs on the season, but his HR/FB ratio is well below his career average. That's despite an uptick in his hard-hit rate.
India batting first for the road team is another mark in his favor here — by definition, he has the best chance for the most at-bats in the game. He's a long shot, but the juicy odds make him worth taking when considering the bonus bets this game should earn.
For a safer option, I prefer Juan Soto (+350) to Aaron Judge (+196) on the Yankees side. Reds starter Graham Ashcraft has been worse against lefties than righties, and we're getting almost double the payout on the left-handed Soto.
While the Coors Field effect is a bit overblown in terms of home runs — Coors boosts total scoring more than any other park in the league, but ranks eighth for home runs — I'd still be remiss to not target this game on Dinger Tuesday.
With Milwaukee exhuming the corpse of Dallas Keuchel earlier in the season, we'll be targeting the Rockies today. Especially since Colorado starter Ryan Feltner has a relatively low fly ball rate.
Keuchel might be left in past the point of effectiveness today following an extra-innings game in which Milwaukee got just four innings from their long reliever last night. Even if he isn't, that would mean extra at-bats against a relatively tired bullpen for the home team.
The switch-hitting Toglia has nine home runs though 143 plate appearances this season, or about one every 16 trips. Conservatively assuming four plate appearances, that gives him about a one-in-four chance to go yard — against an average MLB pitcher.
Keuchel is obviously well-below average at this point, which means we'd only need about +300 to make this bet worth taking. We're getting way better than that on FanDuel, where his line is 80 cents higher than other books.
The game in Los Angeles is the sole contest on the slate where we're projecting for more than three homers tonight, making it a priority to target for Dinger Tuesday. Dodger Stadium trails only Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the best park for home runs, which certainly contributes to the projection.
The home team is the obvious target, with both better hitters and the better pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson has a fly-ball rate about 10% higher than Bobby Miller of the Dodgers, plus Arizona's bullpen is considerably worse than L.A.'s.
I'm going with Pages of the Dodgers as a bit of an off-the-board pick. While the likeliest home runs come from Shohei Ohtani or Will Smith, those players' odds aren't worth taking at FanDuel.
Pages is being offered at a worse price everywhere else in the industry, so it makes sense to use him for this promotion. He's a home run regression candidate, with just eight on the year despite well-above-average fly ball, barrel and hard-hit rates.
Despite hitting the ball well, his HR/FB ratio is a bit off the league average, which we'd expect to turn around in the long run. Freddie Freeman (also +430) is an alternative option with a similar projection, and would be my pivot if his line becomes longer than Pages' due to movement.
