It's a new week on the diamond, and it's not a stacked slate regarding teams in action. But the wind is blowing out in plenty of hitter-friendly environments for Monday's slate.
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Monday slate. A side note: I did not include Game 1 of the doubleheader between the Blue Jays and Orioles.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest entering the week.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Monday, July 29.
Notable Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups:
Juan Soto vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP): Soto has seen Wheeler a whopping 61 times in his career. Funny enough, Soto has walked (13) more times than he has gotten a hit (12). He is hitting .250 against Wheeler with three home runs.
Randy Arozarena vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP): Arozarena’s first real test with the Mariners on Monday against Pivetta and the Red Sox. In 27 career plate appearances, Arozarena is hitting .364 against the right-hander with a pair of home runs.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP): Chisholm secured his first hit as a Yankee on Sunday night and now heads to a familiar matchup with his former division foe Phillies. In 21 plate appearances, Chisholm is hitting .263 against Wheeler with four extra-base hits (80% XBH rate) and a home run.
Jose Ramirez vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP): Be careful here with Jack Flaherty being a hot name on the trade block. But in 17 plate appearances, Ramirez has a .235 average with two home runs.
Manuel Margot vs. Jose Quintana (LHP): Margot has faced Quintana 14 times in his career and has crushed him for a .462 average. Margot has not hit a home run, though he has a pair of doubles against the southpaw.
Jorge Polanco vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP): The red-hot Polanco looks to carry over his weekend tirade against Pivetta. He has faced the right-hander 10 times, hitting .500 with a pair of home runs.
Highest Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
The biggest weather boost is out in Philadelphia (+27.2%), but that also features a matchup between two elite arms: Luis Gil and Zack Wheeler. Because of that, I went with the second-biggest boost in terms of weather, out in Chicago, where the White Sox take on the Royals.
Based on a 92-game sample, there is an expected +23.1% boost to home runs hit. The wind is blowing out at near double-digit breezes to left field with around 80-degree temperatures. It is also a game where both starting pitchers have some concerning underlying metrics.
Chris Flexen takes the mound for the White Sox, and there are few areas where he ranks above league average. While he has slightly improved over the last year, he still remains in the bottom 25% of all pitchers in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeouts and ground balls.
Pitching to contact with plenty of fly balls is a big negative in a plus-run environment. Flexen has allowed a home run in eight of his last nine starts (89%), including one in each of his starts against the Royals this season.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the obvious choice for the Royals (+280) here. Witt is 5-for-8 in his career against Flexen with a home run. He also boasts a 167 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He is second on the team in home runs against righties, behind Salvador Perez (+240), who also has juiced-down odds.
Down the board is MJ Melendez (+370), who is semi-intriguing. He has a near-10% barrel rate and is the only other Royal with double-digit home runs against right-handed pitching. Nearly 60% of all his hits against righties have gone for extra bases.
Alec Marsh will take the mound opposite Flexen and also has issues keeping the ball in the yard. The right-hander boasts a 1.3 HR/9 and ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in barrels allowed (10.4%).
Marsh does have better swing-and-miss stuff than Flexen, but he also ranks worse in xBA (.273) and hard-hit rate (41.8%). Marsh has allowed a home run in 10 of his past 14 outings (71.4%) and two or more in three of his past 11 (27%).
The White Sox offense is not pretty by any means, and just one everyday player — Paul DeJong — has a wRC+ above 100 against right-handed pitching. Looking down the board of rolling xwOBA leaders, Eloy Jimenez has begun to pick up his play a bit.
He's struggled on the year (.222 average, 73 wRC+ vs. RHP), but all five home runs have come against right-handed pitching. We have finally seen Jimenez start to hit the ball much harder at the plate, and his fly balls have increased. He is (+430) to homer tonight.
Luis Robert (+330) is the obvious choice, thanks to his .243 ISO and 11 home runs against right-handed pitching. He has been in a big slump (.167, 1 HR over the last 15 days), so tread lightly.
Either way, we should see a few home runs in Chicago tonight in a plus-weather environment between two replacement-level arms.
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Who’s Hot?
We’ve added some new faces to the rolling xwOBA list!
The downside? Most of these players are not in action tonight.
I touched on Jorge Polanco in an earlier piece, and he’s been mashed ever since (.282 average, 4 HR in the last 15 days), but perhaps no-hitter Tyler Fitzgerald (.405 average, 7 HR in the last 15) is swinging as well.
But let’s move toward actionable games tonight. Keep an eye on where Austin Wells hits in what could be the return of Giancarlo Stanton tonight. Since his move to the cleanup spot, Wells has performed much better. That’s expected, though, hitting behind both Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Thus far, as the cleanup hitter, Wells is hitting .407 with a 1.137 OPS.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s a tough matchup against Zack Wheeler tonight, but it is a plus-run environment with the wind blowing out of Citizens Bank Park.
Under Wells is Pete Alonso (+425), who I think will do some damage tonight against Simeon Woods Richardson. Alonso has finally found success at the plate, hitting .320 with a pair of home runs and three doubles over the last week.
Woods Richardson has a near double-digit barrel rate and has been a bit fortunate (0/82 HR/9, .262 BABIP) on the mound. He gives up plenty of fly balls, and the forecast shows the wind blowing out to the left field at 12 miles per hour. RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +9% increase in home runs.
