It's a light slate to begin the week in baseball, with just nine games on the schedule.
Despite only half the teams in action, there are still some great matchups, headlined by the Phillies and Dodgers, who will start a three-game series tonight. Plus, we get to bet against Patrick Corbin! What is better than that?
I'm here to give you as much information as possible regarding potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming Friday slate.
This article will have several parts. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we expect the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather and end with a recap of which hitters are the hottest over the last couple of weeks.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for hitter props on Friday, August 2nd.
MLB Betting Preview: DiSturco's Top Head-To-Head Matchups
Jose Altuve vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): You’ll notice a trend in this section — the Astros have an extensive history with Heaney. Altuve leads the way with 49 plate appearances, hitting .304 with a pair of home runs. He also has four doubles.
Alex Bregman vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): Although Bregman has made six fewer plate appearances than Altuve, he has found more success at the plate, with a higher average (.342) and slugging (.561 vs. .522) than his teammate. Bregman also has a pair of home runs against Heaney in his career.
Michael Conforto vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP): Despite a lefty-on-lefty matchup, Conforto has crushed Corbin in his career. He has logged 35 plate appearances with a .353 average and five home runs. Corbin has become nothing more than a replacement-level pitcher.
Yordan Alvarez vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): This is another lefty-on-lefty matchup in which the hitter has dominated. Alvarez has seen Heaney 28 times in his career, hitting .524 with a home run and a double. He’s also walked (five) more times than struck out (four).
Mark Canha vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP): Sensing a trend here? Canha has crushed Corbin to the tune of a .462 average. He has two extra-base hits (one homer) but is an on-base machine.
Carlos Santana vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP): Though homerless in the 21 plate appearances, Santana is hitting .313 with a .476 on-base percentage (5 BBs). Santana does have a double and triple vs. the righty, though.
Marcus Semien vs. Hunter Brown (RHP): Semien is an on-base machine in his matchup with Brown. In 17 plate appearances, he is hitting .688, with 10 of his 11 hits being singles. He has a double and a walk otherwise.
Salvador Perez vs. James Paxton (LHP): For a light slate, there’s plenty of history between hitters and pitchers today. Perez has seen Paxton 16 times in his career, and he is hitting .313 with a home run and a double.
Tommy Pham vs. Sean Manaea (LHP): Pham gets a lefty against his former team in a revenge game opportunity. In 12 at-bats against Manaea, Pham is hitting .500 with a pair of doubles and home runs.
MLB Hitting Props: The Ballpark With The Largest Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
It will be nearly 100 degrees out in St. Louis in a one-game makeup series between the Mets and Cardinals. The wind is blowing slightly out to left field, and it’s Monday’s biggest home run boost at +11.8%.
This is based on a 78-game sample size, per RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system, and it’s an awful travel spot for both teams. The Mets come from the West Coast after a three-game set with the Angels and will turn around and fly to Colorado immediately after tonight’s game. The Cardinals, meanwhile, got back home late last night after a Sunday Night Baseball loss to the Cubs.
This will come with a warning, however. Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante takes the mound and he’s been a ground ball machine in his three seasons. Since his debut in 2022, Pallante has a 67.5% ground ball rate. He has also never allowed more than a 4.2 barrel% in his career.
Obviously, he cannot avoid giving up the long ball (0.76 HR/9), but he is the total opposite arm you want on the mound in a potential run-scoring-boosted environment. Keeping that in mind, I would tread lightly with the Mets, especially after a brutal travel spot where we could see some sleepy bats.
The guy I would look toward here is J.D. Martinez (+500). He crushes pitches low in the zone and carries a +5 run value against the four-seam and sinker this season. That’s Pallante’s main two pitches, throwing the fastball over half the time (51.1%) and the sinker just over 20%. Three of the four home runs allowed by Pallante this season have come on those two primary pitches.
Opposite Pallante is southpaw Sean Manaea, whom we briefly discussed earlier, given PHam’s success against him. He is fresh off his best outing of the season (7 innings, 11 Ks) but does have some question marks overall. He is a fly-ball pitcher with nearly double Pallante's barrel rate (8.2%). Before his last start, Manaea had allowed five home runs in the previous three games.
Pham has excellent numbers against Manaea, as does Willson Contreras (+400), who has been slumping lately. But he is the top Cardinal regarding wRC+ (165) and isolated power (.246) against southpaws. He also has a pair of home runs against Manaea in his career.
I wrote about Masyn Winn (+750) yesterday for Sunday Night Baseball. Oddly enough, he’s the team leader in home runs (seven) against left-handed pitching. He is 13th in Baseball Savant’s rolling xwOBA leaderboard and has hit three home runs over the last week.
- Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.
MLB Hitting Picks and Predictions: Who’s Hot?
It’s a new week in baseball, and plenty of new faces have joined the top 10 of the rolling xwOBA leaderboard. Because of a lighter nine-game slate, I included the top 12 for today.
Josh Bell (+630) remains in the top 10. Still, it has dethroned Jorge Soler and skyrocketed to the top spot. He was crushing the ball for Miami before being traded at the deadline and, in his Arizona debut, cranked a pair of home runs in a 9-8 win.
Since then, Bell has been hitless in his last seven at-bats. He does get a friendly matchup against left-hander Logan Allen of the Guardians tonight. Allen is in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in xERA, barrels and hard-hit rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run in his last two starts but has given up two or more in 39% of his starts this season.
Bell’s OPS is slightly higher against left-handed pitching (.715), though it’s hard not to want to bet Ketel Marte (+475) in this scenario. Joc Pederson is a new addition to the top 10 list, but it’s a lefty-on-lefty matchup for Pederson, who has just 20 at-bats this season against southpaws and will likely have the day off.
Kyle Schwarber has started August red hot, hitting .385 with a home run. But he gets a difficult matchup against right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers on Monday night. Glasnow is a positive regression candidate and ranks in the top 6% of all pitchers in xBA, xERA and strikeout rate.
Perhaps the player I am most intrigued by on today’s slate is No. 12, Matt Chapman (+260). He has been quietly crushing the ball, hitting .333 with a 1.080 OPS in his last 15 days. He has always crushed left-handed pitching, with a 153 wRC+ and .218 ISO.
None other than Patrick Corbin takes the mound on Monday, and he’s a consistent fade candidate. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in xBA (.310) and allows a hard hit on nearly half of all balls put into play. His xERA continues to float toward 6, and there are no positives out of his camp whatsoever.
Chapman has been seeing the ball well at the plate, and I expect him to do some damage against Corbin. Despite his barrel rate dropping a bit year over year, he’s improved his strikeout rate and continues to boast an elite hard-hit rate (47.7%) and average exit velocity (92.9 mph, 95th percentile in MLB).
