With a loaded MLB slate on Tuesday, June 25, our staff of betting analysts has locked in three MLB Best Bets.
Read on for props, picks and predictions for Guardians vs Orioles, Phillies vs Tigers and Mariners vs Rays.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Tuesday Props, Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:50 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Guardians vs. Orioles
By Tony Sartori
While 9.5 is a high total, an even-money return in this specific circumstance is worth a play.
First, these are two of the best offenses in baseball.
Both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Second, both starting pitchers are worth fading.
Left-hander Logan Allen takes the mound for Cleveland with a fade-worthy 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 15 starts this season. His underlying metrics are even worse as he sports a 5.46 xERA and ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Baltimore returns with fellow southpaw Cole Irvin. Although his surface-level stats are stronger, Irvin's underlying profile suggests that steep regression is looming. He owns a 4.54 xERA and ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Finally, the weather could give us a slight boost as the forecast calls for winds blowing out to left-center throughout the game.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
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Phillies vs. Tigers
By Sean Paul
The two likely CY Young front runners battle on Tuesday. Prepare your popcorn for Detroit's Tarik Skubal against Philadelphia's Ranger Suarez.
There’s a clear divide in talent between the World Series-contending Phillies and slowly rising Tigers, but this pitching matchup is pure electricity.
My best bet for the day is backing the less explosive pitcher.
I’ve enjoyed betting the Ranger Suarez over strikeouts prop on multiple occasions this year, and it’s a perfect chance to grab a lower line. Suarez has been terrific for the Phillies, posting a 1.75 ERA with an impressive 2.68 FIP and 2.77 xFIP. It’s not a fluke. Suarez is the real deal, and he's striking out more batters than ever (9.26 K/9.)
One thing helping Suarez’s strikeout prop is how much the Tigers lineup punches out — 23.7% of the time, the seventh-highest team mark in baseball. Four of the Tigers' likely starters in this matchup strikeout 26% or more of the time — Riley Greene (26%), Justin-Henry Malloy (38%), Jake Rogers (30%), and Andy Ibanez (26%.) If Ryan Kreidler starts at shortstop like he did against Max Fried, add another strikeout-prone batter to the list.
Pitchers have found plenty of success against this Tigers lineup, especially recently. Five of the past six starters between the Braves and White Sox series last week struck out five or more batters — the only starter who didn’t is Jonathan Cannon, who pitched just one inning.
I’d be surprised if the Phillies southpaw doesn’t punch out six or more Tigers.
Pick: Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)
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Mariners vs. Rays
By D.J. James
Luis Castillo is the ace of the Mariners’ pitching staff, but he has flaws.
The veteran righty has a plus fastball but has a below-average batted-ball profile. He does have a strikeout rate of around 25% with a walk rate of under 7%, but he has not been that much better than his opponent, Zack Littell.
Littell has functioned well in the Rays rotation this year. He has a 4.21 ERA and xERA slightly below. Like Castillo, he will allow some hard-hit balls and doesn't keep the ball on the ground often. However, he still strikes out over 21% of batters while walking less than 5%.
Hitting-wise, the Rays have a 106 wRC+ off of righties in June. They also walk more than 8% of the time.
Seattle has a 118 wRC+ with comparable walk and strikeout rates to the Rays with those same parameters. Yes, they have been better, but not by much.
Both teams should have enough relievers to eat up innings, but the difference between Castillo and Littell is negligible, especially given that the game is in Tampa.
Look for the Rays to take this one at home. They shouldn't be underdogs.
Pick: Rays ML (+105)
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