With 15 MLB games scheduled on Sunday, May 26, our staff has locked in on three MLB best bets, including picks and predictions for three pitcher props in Braves vs Pirates and Giants vs Mets.
Continue reading below for our Sunday MLB Best Bets.
MLB Best Bets Sunday: Prop Picks & Predictions (5/26)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 p.m. | |
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
| 1:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs. Pirates
By Tony Sartori
Pittsburgh hands the ball to left-hander Martín Pérez on Sunday, and he should be a good fade candidate. It's been a difficult start to the campaign for Pérez, who is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through 10 starts.
His underlying metrics are even worse, as the left-hander ranks in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade Pérez in the strikeout market, as he also ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.
These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Atlanta. Through 51 career plate appearances against Pérez, this current Braves lineup possesses a mere 13.7% strikeout rate and 17.2% whiff rate.
Pick: Martín Pérez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 | Play to -105)
| | |
Giants vs. Mets
By Tony Sartori
Another pitcher to fade on Sunday is right-hander Logan Webb. He has been solid to begin the campaign, but his analytics suggest regression is looming.
Currently, Webb ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He has also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the seventh percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in strikeout rate.
Even if that expected regression doesn't come to fruition Sunday, he proved last month that he struggles with striking out this New York lineup. In April, Webb tossed eight shutout innings against the Mets in what was his best performance of the season.
Despite throwing the best his game has to offer, Webb still only recorded four strikeouts in that outing.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)
| | |
Giants vs. Mets
By Tony Sartori
Sticking in the same game on Sunday, we are also going to fade New York's southpaw, Sean Manaea. He is another guy whose surface-level stats don't align with the underlying metrics, suggesting that regression is right around the corner.
Manaea's 4.26 xERA falls far below his 3.11 ERA, and the rest of his profile is also troubling as he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xBA and average exit velocity. Once again, we will head to the strikeout market to attempt to capitalize on this expected regression, considering Manaea also ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.
The left-hander has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in five of his past seven starts, and that is despite him out-performing his analytics. If Manaea gets chased early, which is possible against this solid San Francisco lineup, then I doubt he records five or more punchouts.
Finally, the Giants rank 10th in the league this season in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.
Pick: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to +100)
| | |
