We have a full 15-game slate on the 4th of July, starting early with Pirates vs Nationals at Nationals Stadium at 11:05 AM ET and closing with Red Sox vs Angels at Angel Stadium at 9:38 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for our Nation's 250th Birthday.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today for the 4th of July.
MLB Best Bets Today: 4th of July
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 11:05 AM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mike Ianniello's Pirates vs Nationals Best Bet
We could see some “bombs bursting in air” on this 4th of July, as I expect Zack Littell to continue serving up home runs. He has one of the league’s worst fastballs, resulting in a 6.74 xERA.
If you are looking for red, white, and blue on this holiday, you can get it by visiting the Baseball Savant page of these two starters. Littell’s is all blue, and Braxton Ashcraft’s is all red.
Ashcraft ranks among the top 10% of qualified pitchers in chase rate and walk rate.
That is an elite combination that allows him to work outside the strike zone, racking up strikeouts while avoiding walks.
These two offenses have been surprise stories of the first half. But while the Nats have bigger guns at the top of the order, the Pirates have more depth.
That depth hits fastballs better than any team in baseball. Meanwhile, the Nats rank just 19th in weighted curveball runs created this season, and that number won’t improve against Ashcraft.
Pittsburgh’s biggest issue is its bullpen. The Pirates rank 23rd among MLB teams in reliever ERA and 22nd in reliever WHIP. But that’s neutralized by Washington’s equally sketchy relief corps. While the Pirates have blown 16 saves this season, Washington leads the league with 25.
In this matchup, the Pirates have a significant starting pitching advantage, a slight bullpen advantage, and an equal offense.
All this to say, we are riding with the Buccos to wave the black and white flag on this 4th of July.
Pick: Pirates ML (-180 or Better)
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Charlie DiSturco's Blue Jays vs Mariners Best Bet
Until Shane Bieber shows signs of life, I’ll continue fading him.
The right-hander has battled injuries over the past three seasons, making just 11 starts. But this year, the underlying indicators are especially concerning. His average fastball velocity has dipped to just 92 MPH, and nearly every advanced metric is pointing in the wrong direction.
Across nine innings, Bieber has surrendered six barrels, good for an alarming 18.2% rate. His expected numbers are equally ugly, including a 17.03 xERA, .415 xBA, and .831 xSLG.
Typically a ground-ball pitcher, Bieber has seen that profile disappear this season. Just 27.3% of balls in play against him have been on the ground, while a career-worst 42.4% have been hit in the air.
When hitters are consistently making hard contact and elevating the baseball, home runs follow. That’s been the case for Bieber, who has already allowed four home runs in two starts.
Long gone are the days of Cal Raleigh being a viable option in this spot, but there is another Mariners bat I’m happy to back, and he’s gone quite under the radar: Dominic Canzone.
While he may not be a household name, Canzone’s underlying metrics are elite.
Among qualified hitters, Canzone ranks in the 94th percentile or better in both barrel rate (15.7%) and xSLG (.536). He also leads the Mariners in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and xBA, emerging as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise inconsistent Seattle offense.
He’s been especially dangerous against right-handed pitching. In that split. Canzone is hitting .273 with 11 home runs. Not to mention, 52% of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Pick: Dominic Canzone Home Run
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Evan Abrams's White Sox vs Guardians Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.3% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across several seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced, likely due to a lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
It’s tough to price Hunter Greene entering his 2026 MLB debut. He’s an elite talent, but he wasn’t overwhelming in his Triple-A rehab starts (0 hits allowed across 10 innings, but just a 20% strikeout rate).
Meanwhile, Brandon Young hasn’t been bad. He has decent command over his arsenal, even if he isn’t a big strikeout guy. His earned run indicators indicate an average-to-slightly-below-average starting pitcher.
For what it’s worth, that’s been enough for Baltimore, which has won 10 of his 13 starts this season.
Perhaps Young will allow the rest of Baltimore’s roster to shine. The Orioles will have a big advantage in the bullpen and on defense in this matchup, and Zerillo projects them with a slightly higher wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Pick: Under 8 (-120 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Red Sox vs Angels Best Bet
We’re all underestimating the job that Sonny Gray has done in Boston this season.
He’s been the steady hand in an unstable environment. He’s been a workhorse, tossing at least six innings in six consecutive starts. He’s run above-average Stuff+ (104) and Location+ (100) ratings during the stretch.
While his 2.69 ERA is bloated by an 84% strand rate, his earned run indicators are all below four (3.61 xERA, 3.59 xFIP, 3.75 botERA). He has a really good slider and pairs it with a fine curveball, and that’s helped him maintain an above-average batted-ball profile.
Regardless, Gray has done enough for the Red Sox to be 11-4 in his starts this season.
On the other hand, I just don’t think Sam Aldegheri is that good. He doesn’t have big-league stuff, with a career 89 Stuff+ rating and a career 3.3% strikeout-minus-walk rate. It’s really hard to survive in this league with a 92-MPH fastball an average secondary stuff (104 Stuff+ cutter, 101 Stuff+ slider).
As they do against most opponents, the Red Sox will have a significant defensive advantage in this game.
And compared to the Angels, Zerillo projects Boston’s lineup with a slightly better wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Suffice it to say, I’ll be wearing red, white, blue, and Gray on this 4th of July.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-175 or Better)
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