We have a full 15-game slate today, starting early with Marlins vs Pirates at 1:10 PM at PNC Park on MLB.TV, and ending with Rockies vs A's at 10:05 PM at Las Vegas Ballpark on MLB.TV
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Friday, June 12.
Below are 6 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 7:37 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 10:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Marlins vs Pirates Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
It's a coin flip on who the Pirates' best pitcher right now is. The correct choice is still Paul Skenes, but Ashcraft has made it a conversation with his performance this year. Check out some of the data, courtesy of our sweet BARTOLO app, available to PRO subscribers:
I personally focus on three things when evaluating a pitcher:
- Strikeout rate
- Walk rate
- Ground ball rate
It's simple, but those are the three main inputs into the best ERA predictor stats. Ashcraft is in elite territory in this trio of stats with a 27% K%, a 5% BB%, and a 47% GB%. He's good at all three. The young righty did get banged up against the Braves last time, but still added a 5:0 K:BB to his tally in that one.
This is a bounce-back spot for Ashcraft and for the Bucs. They've had to play six consecutive games against the Braves and Dodgers, so they're happy to see the 34-35 Marlins coming into town. The Marlins are hitting .248/.321/.383 against righties this year with a 21% K% and a .308 xwOBA. They're not a pushover lineup, but they're in the lower half of the league. It's not a very impressive lineup, name-value-wise. They have a good mix of contact (Hicks & Edwards) with power (Stowers & Caissie), but every hitter in the lineup has some hole in their game.
I expect Ashcraft to do well in this one.
Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 Outs (-160 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Diamondbacks vs Reds Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
Rodriguez is having a phenomenal third season in Arizona, having recorded a 2.52 ERA across his first 13 outings in 2026. He has been equally as efficient, too, currently posting a 1.18 WHIP on the bump.
While the Diamondbacks’ lefty is trending upwards, having recorded seven quality starts already, Lodolo is heading in the complete opposite direction as his Friday counterpart.
Despite Lodolo coming off a stellar 2025 campaign, in which he finished the season with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, he's been unable to return to last year’s form, largely due to significant offseason injuries.
While Lodolo was just reactivated from the IL just a couple of weeks ago, he has dealt with a nagging blister on his left index finger, which appears to have significantly impacted his form on the mound.
Lodolo has made six starts across nearly 34 frames since returning to Cincinnati's rotation, having recorded an atrocious 5.51 ERA over that span.
While renowned for his 6-foot-6 frame and a pretty versatile pitching arsenal, Lodolo has run into significant concerns with his command on the mound and has recorded a career-high walk rate since returning to play.
In addition to his inefficiency on the mound, he's been susceptible to heavy damage, having already allowed eight homers across his first six outings in 2026.
Also, while Lodolo’s punch-out prowess made him a highly-touted prospect, Cincinnati’s youngster has fanned just 25 batters across his nearly 33 innings pitched thus far.
Given his significant drop in strikeout rate since returning from the IL, he has struggled to retire hitters in his normal fashion.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (+120 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Yankees vs Blue Jays Best Bet
Ryan Weathers takes the mound for the Yankees today, and that is a problem for the Toronto Blue Jays — they are the fourth-worst offense against left-handed pitching this season.
They should be returning lefty-masher Alejandro Kirk to the lineup, but still may be without center fielder Daulton Varsho, a rare lefty with reverse splits.
Furthermore, Trey Yesavage takes the mound for Toronto, and that could be a problem given recent starts. Yesavage has allowed 11 walks in his past three starts (17 1/3 IP), with only 15 strikeouts.
He is also struggling at home this season. He has a 4.57 ERA at home (.304 wOBA allowed) compared to a 1.71 on the road (.260 wOBA allowed).
The Yankees have the fifth-best offense against RHP this season and can feature a lineup loaded with up to seven left-handed hitters.
- Yesavage vs. LHH – 11.2% K-BB, 4.44 xFIP
- Yesavage vs. RHH – 18.7% K-BB, 3.87 xFIP
Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees should be able to handle business against their division opponent.
Pick: Yankees ML (-110 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Dodgers vs White Sox Best Bet
This is primarily a bet that Roki Sasaki is underrated.
He seems to have worked through whatever issues he was facing early in the season. Sasaki’s most recent start was his best of the year, featuring seven shutout innings, 10 strikeouts, a season-high 118 Stuff+ rating, and a season-high average fastball velocity (98.5 MPH) — he’s also been throwing much harder splitters lately (between 90 and 91 MPH).
Over his past four starts, Sasaki has run a 27% strikeout minus walk rate. While his batted-ball profile isn’t great, he’s missing so many bats that it almost doesn’t matter.
I like to bet the Dodgers when their “back-end” starters are on the mound, such as Sasaki, Justin Wrobleski, or Eric Lauer. When we can get the best lineup in baseball — alongside a top-five bullpen — in the -130 to -170 range on the moneyline, it’s usually worth a bet no matter who toes the rubber.
Meanwhile, I think the White Sox are a tad overrated.
This is a pretty watered-down lineup without Munetaka Murakami — Zerillo projects this lineup with a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, per BARTOLO.
I don’t think they’re the best team in the AL Central, and I think their record is inflated behind a 14-6 record in one-run games.
Anthony Kay is just OK. He’s been relatively lucky this season, and his rolling CSW rate is sitting at a season-low, which is bad because I don’t think his batted-ball profile is poor.
It’s worth mentioning that Shohei Ohtani left last night’s game with knee inflammation. Dave Roberts says he’s fine, but if he sits tonight, I think I’d adjust my price point and play the Dodgers at -150 or better.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-170 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Astros vs Royals Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
The Houston Astros come into this matchup with a 31-39 record and are 15-20 on the road. Houston started its series against the Angels with a 5-4 win, but back-to-back losses (10-1 and 3-2) left the club heading to Kansas City with little momentum.
One player to watch is Yordan Alvarez, who has always enjoyed hitting at Kauffman Stadium. In his career there, he owns a 1.188 OPS with five home runs, making him a key bat in the Astros lineup.
The Kansas City Royals, meanwhile, are 28-41 on the season and 16-19 at home. They’re coming off a 4-2 loss to the Rangers and will be looking to bounce back in front of their fans.
Luinder Avila gets the start for Kansas City and has been one of the bright spots on the pitching staff lately. Since May 8, he has owned a 2.21 ERA, allowing just five earned runs across 20 1/3 innings.
Evan Abrams' Public Fades Humidity Bet Lab system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games in which elevated humidity — ranging from 45% to 95% — coincides with moderate temperatures and neutral wind conditions.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest — between 6 and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 9 (-110 or Better)
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Matthew Lopes's Rockies vs Athletics Best Bet
It doesn't really matter who the Rockies decide to name as their starting pitcher tonight; the Athletics are going to put up a whole lot of offense in Las Vegas.
After piling on a combined 25 runs earlier in the week against a competent Milwaukee pitching staff, imagine the damage the A's can do against the worst staff in baseball?
Colorado’s arms rank dead last in batting average against (.286) and ERA (5.56) so far in 2026, while the bullpen in particular has been responsible for 41 of the team's 94 home runs allowed.
Now this group has to find a way to keep the ball from leaving the yard in a park that just welcomed 22 home runs in a mere three-game series.
Zach Agnos and his 7.65 ERA are in line to start tonight for the Rockies, although the team might choose to go in a different direction due to his recent struggles. The 25-year-old right-hander has surrendered five home runs in his last six innings alone, so it's unlikely Colorado is confident in his abilities to contain opposing hitters in Vegas.
There is no shortage of power in this Athletics lineup, but it is Nick Kurtz who stands out as the catalyst of the offense. In just his second major league season, Kurtz ranks fourth among all qualified MLB hitters with a 58.3% hard-hit rate and ranks sixth in average exit velocity (94.4 MPH).
With five of his 15 home runs coming already in June, including four in Las Vegas earlier this week, the red-hot 23-year-old is a great candidate to destroy a baseball or two tonight in the scorching Nevada desert.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run (+150 or Better)
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