We have a full 15-game slate today, starting early with Blue Jays vs Tigers at 1:10 PM at Comerica Park on MLB.TV, and closing with Dodgers vs Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium on MLB.TV.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Saturday.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 4:05 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Blue Jays vs Tigers Best Bet
It's a bullpen game for Toronto on Saturday, as the Jays will open behind Mason Fluharty and likely give the bulk of the innings to rookie Spencer Miles.
That might turn some bettors off this squad, but it shouldn't — the Blue Jays bullpen is awesome.
I have them power-rated with the fifth-best bullpen in baseball. They lead the league in reliever xFIP and reliever Stuff+ while ranking second in reliever Pitching+. While Jeff Hoffman might be unavailable, Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers are available in the back end, and there are plenty of middle-relief options.
Miles isn't a bad bulk option, either. He's running expected run indicators in the low-threes (3.30 xERA, 3.30 xFIP) behind a 15% K-BB, and his batted-ball profile is immaculate. You'll see a healthy amount of sliders (35% usage), a pitch the Tigers have been around league-average against (.695 OPS, .296 wOBA).
It's also helpful that the Blue Jays are one of MLB's best defensive teams.
I think Toronto is beginning to turn it around in the batter's box, as the Jays are pulling more balls in the air over the past few weeks. Casey Mize is a good pitcher, but he's due for some general regression (2.90 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 4.57 botERA), and his fastball velocity is nearing career lows (93.9 MPH on average, 93.3 MPH in his most recent start).
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+100 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Orioles vs Nationals Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Chris Bassitt is the perfect guy to flummox this Washington offense.
First of all, it's struggled in the past two games, which shows how quickly things can change in this sport — the Nats have been white-hot at the plate for most of the season.
Secondly, Bassitt gives up just 0.71 HR/9.
He can limit the Nationals' offense in this matchup.
Pick: Orioles ML (-120 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Brewers vs Twins Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Here we come to the biggest and most storied rivalry of Rivalry Weekend in Minnesota.
Logan Henderson has yet to allow more than two runs in eight major league starts. True, he only faced nine Royals in his first of this season, but the point stands.
He has a very early career 26.4 K-BB%, and if you look at his minor league records on his Fangraphs page, you won’t find a rate below 20% at any of his stops.
Henderson has allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, but when you’re striking out one-third of the batters you face, that’s not that bad. In fact, 30% of his hard contact in the majors has been barrels.
The only thing he doesn’t do well is generate ground balls (22.7%).
Minnesota has somehow become a top-three run environment (108 Park Run Factor in the latest Statcast update), but the home run factor for both right and left-handed batters is just 97. Henderson has also kept batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA, too.
I do have some concerns about his ability to continue to strike out so many batters with an 11.6 SwStr%, but that’s still an above-average swing and miss rate.
Henderson's 4.09 dERA does match his 4.15 ERA in this year’s three-start sample, but he doesn’t have another indicator reaching even three, and that includes pitch modeling. His 2.63 Bot ERA, 115 Pitching+ are both second best on Saturday’s entire board, behind only deGrom.
Connor Prielipp has been another very impressive young pitcher through his first four major league starts, striking out 26.6% of the batters he’s faced.
He, too, has a questionable 9.7 SwStr% that’s below league average and has also had some issues with ground balls (34.7%) and barrels (12.2%), but Prielipp has solid pitch modeling numbers (3.99 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+) and prospect pedigree.
Fangraphs ranks him third in the Minnesota organization with a 50 Future Value Grade, which is generally a league average middle of the rotation pitcher.
Prielipp also has strong K-BB% marks through the minors, along with ground-ball rates of 45% or higher.
While the Minnesota offense has been around average at home (100 wRC+) and against RHP (98), the Brewers have just a 77 wRC+ vs LHP this season, and their projected lineup’s 88 mark against southpaws since last season isn’t much better.
Finally, the Milwaukee bullpen also has the best ERA (2.86) and estimators (3.10 FIP/3.33 xFIP/3.16 SIERA) over the last 30 days.
Pick: Under 8 (-125 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Dodgers vs Angels Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This system targets Unders in games with high strikeout starting pitchers (home: 23%+, visitor: 27%+ K rates).
With fewer balls in play and more missed bats, these games trend under, especially in regular-season settings with moderately priced totals.
This model capitalizes on pitching dominance to limit run production.
Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski has struggled this season, but he posted a 27% strikeout rate across 66 innings in 2025.
Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Soriano is having a full-on breakout campaign, with a 1.66 ERA behind a 28% strikeout rate through nine outings.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 or Better)
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