We have a full 15-game slate today, highlighted by Blue Jays vs Cubs at 2:20 PM ET at Wrigley Field on MLB.TV.
Our staff has pieced together five best bets for Friday's slate, headlined by Sean Zerillo's new PRO baseball betting tool, BARTOLO, providing our PRO subscribers with all the data he uses to project MLB games each day.
Below are five MLB best bets today, where you can check out some of the tools and data BARTOLO provides.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:45 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Twins vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
The Twins had to finish up a series in Texas on Thursday before traveling to Arizona for a weekend set, while the Diamondbacks had an off day, giving the Snakes a travel-and-rest advantage for Friday's matchup.
The Diamondbacks have the better starting pitcher (Michael Soroka ranks as my SP No. 46, while Connor Prielipp checks in closer to average, as my SP No. 96, out of nearly 200 ranked starting pitchers), bullpen (projected No. 8 vs. No. 23; nearly sixth tenths of a run differential on a projected ERA), and position player group (projected No. 2 vs. No 20, averaging my offensive, defensive, and baserunning grades for each team).
Arizona has struggled against right-handed pitching this season (84 wRC+, 30th), but they have performed well against lefties (108 wRC+) and project even a few points better than that against southpaws in my model. Conversely, the Twins have performed to my expectations against right-handed pitching (projected 103 wRC+; actual 102), and project as both the slightly lesser offense and much worse team defensively.
The Diamondbacks have the lowest strikeout rate in the National League (20%), and they are a consensus top-five defensive team per both Defensive Runs Saved (4th) and Outs Above Average (2nd), along with, in some order, the Dodgers (1st, 3rd), Cubs (2nd, 1st), and Red Sox (3rd, 4th).
Contact and defense are the same formula that the Blue Jays followed to win the American League in 2026.
I projected the D-Backs near -200 in this matchup and would bet their moneyline to -185.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-185 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Orioles vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
The Orioles are in the same travel and rest spot as the Twins, continuing a road trip against a well-rested NL West club after a Thursday game in Seattle.
Moreover, like the D-Backs, the Dodgers have the advantage in every aspect of the matchup I can analyze.
Roki Sasaki is a much better pitcher (SP No. 49) than Trey Gibson, who sits near the bottom of my pitcher rankings (SP No. 198). Additionally, the Dodgers have the better bullpen (No. 5 vs. No. 15, projected 0.3-run ERA differential) and the best offense in baseball (projected 118 wRC+ vs. RHP vs. 124 actual).
Sasaki has struggled with his command, including in his last start against the White Sox (3 BB, 4 K), but his stuff and underlying indicators have shown drastic improvement throughout this season.
Last year, Sasaki couldn't get lefties out (6.59 xFIP, 0.0% K-BB%), but that's changed in 2026 (4.30 xFIP, 11.8% K-BB%) after he revamped his pitch mix, including his signature splitter.
I projected the Dodgers north of 70% to win this matchup and would bet their moneyline to -235.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-235 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Red Sox vs Mariners Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Bryce Miller is having a breakout 2026 season, with a career-high strikeout rate (28.8% vs 24.3% in 2024) and career-low walk rate (4% vs. 4.8% in 2023). Miller is throwing harder than ever before (96.6 mph vs. 94.8 mph last season) and generating more whiffs. To date, he ranks as my No. 7 starting pitcher, just behind Tarik Skubal and Drew Ramussen, and ahead of Dylan Cease and Chase Burns.
Miller draws a soft matchup on Friday night against a Red Sox offense that has struggled to score and vastly underperformed their offensive projections. They have an 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (29th) compared to a league-average projection.
Miller should have a game opponent in Ranger Suarez, who has thus far lived up to his 5-year, $130-million contract. Suarez projects as my SP 42, but he's a strike thrower who limits homers, and the Mariners produce most of their runs through power and patience as opposed to sustained contact.
Moreover, both bullpens are well-rested, as if the Red Sox need their long man (Ryan Watson), the game total should be in jeopardy anyway.
I projected fewer than six runs in this matchup and would bet the Under to 6.5 (-120).
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Blue Jays vs Cubs Best Bet
Kevin Gausman vs. Ben Brown is an intriguing pitching duel in an old-school vs. new-school way. Both righties are having excellent seasons. Gausman's 3.41 ERA is nearly two full runs above Brown's 1.71, but their peripheral stats are identical.
While Brown is due for a regression, the Cubs starter has been a much better pitcher at home this season. His 20.4% K-BB and 2.91 xFIP at Wrigley Field are far better than his 14.8% K-BB and 3.66 xFIP on the road. Brown's ERA is slightly better on the road, only due to BABIP luck.
Meanwhile, Gausman is a much worse pitcher away from Rogers Centre. His road 12.6% K-BB and 4.55 xFIP are far cries from his 25.2% K-BB and 2.81 xFIP on the road.
Also, the Cubs just demoted early-season star, Moises Ballesteros. The lefty DH/C was on a tear in April, but has had an 8 wRC+ since his last home run (May 3) and a 59 wRC+ in June. Swapping his spot in the lineup with any bench hitter should be considered an immediate improvement.
With Chicago's offense against RHP (105 wRC+) better than Toronto's (100 wRC+) and the Blue Jays' high-leverage arms almost entirely pitching twice in the past three days, the Cubs are the much better bet for today.
Pick: Cubs ML (-130 or Better)
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Charlie DiSturco's Brewers vs Braves Best Bet
This is a plus matchup for all the Brewers, especially Jackson Chourio. He's hitting .349 with a .982 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Chourio's career-best 15% barrel rate is nothing to marvel at. He is absolutely tattooing the baseball of late, with six home runs in his last eight games.
I'll happily bet the red-hot Chourio to go yard at north of 4-to-1.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run (+400 or Better)
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