We have a loaded 17-game Wednesday slate on the diamond thanks to two doubleheaders, and our MLB betting staff has come through with three MLB Best Bets, with picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Phillies and Royals vs Cardinals.
Find our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 10, below.
MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks & Predictions for Wednesday (7/10)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Wednesday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Cristopher Sánchez has been a key pitcher in the exceptional Philadelphia Phillies rotation. He has a 2.96 ERA against a 3.52 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity is under 88 MPH with an above average Hard-Hit Rate.
His Walk Rate is also under 7%, but his key ingredient is keeping the ball on the ground, where he ranks in the 96th percentile. This will be a great neutralizer against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday.
Gavin Stone goes for the Dodgers on Wednesday. He has 3.03 ERA and 3.75 xERA, and his Average Exit Velocity is below 88 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 83rd percentile.
He does not strike many hitters out and does, at times, have issues with walks, but he has been a solid starter.
The Dodgers have a 132 wRC+ off of lefties in the last month. Yes, this lineup is potent, but Sánchez is the guy who can keep them off balance and get out of jams via the ground ball.
In relief, the Phillies have a 2.98 ERA in the last month, so basically, anyone who enters the game out of the bullpen is reliable.
The Dodgers have had their issues in relief, but Stone can pitch deep enough to relieve some of the pressure with logging innings against this Phillies team with a 113 wRC+ off of righties in the last month.
Yes, both teams have been strong at the plate lately, but quality pitching should overcome hitting in this one. Bet the under from 9.5 down to 8.5.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-130 at FanDuel | Bet to 8.5 at -110)
Dodgers vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
I completely understand why this total has to be a high number: these are two of the best lineups in baseball. With that said, if sportsbooks are going to return even money on nine runs in a pitching matchup between Gavin Stone and Christopher Sanchez, I'm going to take the bait every time.
Stone is 9-2 this season with a commanding 3.03 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also strong as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
On the other hand, Sanchez has arguably put together an even stronger campaign. He is 6-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
The southpaw ranks in the 67th percentile or higher in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.
Finally, both bullpens rank in the top six of the league in ERA. Considering these variables, I think it's worth taking a shot on both pitching staffs to relatively keep these lineups at bay.
Pick: Under 9 (+102 at DraftKings)
Royals vs. Cardinals (Game 2)
By Cody Goggin:
Sonny Gray was originally slated to start tonight’s game, but after yesterday’s rainout, it’s being reported that his start is pushed to Friday. Instead, the Cardinals will use Gordon Graceffo as a spot starter, according to Katie Woo of The Athletic.
Graceffo, who is making his first MLB start, has pitched 4 1/3 innings in one Major League game this season, which is also the only appearance in his career. The 24-year-old has a 3.86 ERA and 71 strikeouts over 77 innings at Triple-A.
According to FanGraphs, he is the No. 25 prospect in the organization. He has seen an uptick in velocity to go along with his plus slider, making him an interesting back end of the rotation option. However, it doesn’t seem like he’s ever going to be a high strikeout guy.
Former Cardinal Michael Wacha was scheduled to go last night but instead will get the nightcap for today’s doubleheader. The former first-round pick of St. Louis has been a steady starter over the last few seasons. This year with K.C., he has a 3.74 ERA (vs. a 3.85 xERA) over 84 1/3 innings.
Wacha isn’t a high strikeout pitcher as he ranks in the 35th percentile in whiff rate and 43rd percentile in strikeout rate. He has excelled in limiting hard contact, ranking in the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate, 68th percentile in barrel rate and 83rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
This year, the Royals rank 20th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA. They have flashed some power, ranking 13th in SLG and 10th in ISO. The Royals rank 11th in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, and fifth in exit velocity. They hit the ball hard, but their overall numbers are likely brought down a bit by Kauffman Stadium not being a good home run park.
The Royals are underdogs on the moneyline, but I would take them out to slight favorites based on this matchup as I think they have the better offense and better pitcher.
