Saturday's MLB slate features 15 games, and our MLB betting experts have found their MLB best bets today — continue reading for their picks and predictions on Brewers vs Astros and Angels vs Rangers.
Saturday MLB Best Bets | 2 Picks & Predictions (5/18)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Saturday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brewers vs. Astros
By Tony Sartori
I think Milwaukee is simply mispriced in this spot.
Let's start with the hitting. This season, the Brewers outrank the Astros in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Not only are they the clearly superior team at the dish, but Milwaukee's bullpen also beats the Astros' relief staff in ERA and xFIP.
That just leaves the starting pitching matchup, which is Bryse Wilson against Justin Verlander. Entering this matchup, Wilson paces Verlander in both ERA and WHIP.
So, how are the Brewers underdogs? Well, Verlander's metrics are better than Wilson's, and the expected regression that is looming for Milwaukee's pitcher is larger than that of Houston's.
With that said, I would argue the gap in those two pitchers' analytics does not outweigh the fact that the Brewers are the better team both at the plate and out of the bullpen. Wilson's underlying metrics are concerning, but Verlander also ranks in the 48th percentile in xERA and seventh percentile in barrel rate.
So, at +140, it's worth taking a shot on the underdogs in this spot. That is a particularly good line that is available via FanDuel, a price that is 10-15 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Brewers ML (+136)
Angels vs. Rangers
Perhaps one of the most underrated pitchers this season has been southpaw Patrick Sandoval. Despite an elite 3.7% barrel rate allowed and improvements to his xBA, strikeout rate and command, his ERA sits at 5.00.
Underlying metrics (3.49 xERA, 3.46 xFIP, 2.76 FIP) all suggest that positive regression is coming. The lefty keeps the ball on the ground and has been excellent at limiting hard contact, which is a huge plus against a free-swinging Rangers squad.
Opposite Sandoval is Jose Urena, who has been much improved this season in limited innings. His xFIP is the lowest of his career and his biggest improvement has come in limiting barrels. Urena is not overpowering — he has a career 15.5% strikeout rate — relying on generating weak contact on the ground.
I tend to think Urena is going to regress toward his career averages. While he’s mostly abandoned his worst pitch (fastball, 8.6%) for increased slider/sinker usage, Urena’s last five seasons have all featured an xERA of 4.94 or worse.
The Rangers offense is definitely much more daunting than the Angels', but L.A. has been hitting much better despite the absence of Mike Trout. Players like Jo Adell and Zach Neto have been providing much-needed offensive boosts alongside Taylor Ward.
From a pure pitching perspective, the edge is definitely in Sandoval’s favor. I’m looking to avoid bullpens and back the positive regression that’s coming for Sandoval.
