Who's ready to stay up late on Monday night?
There are only six MLB games to bet on today, and our analysts are on the latest games on the slate. We have two agreeable picks on White Sox vs. Angels, and a pair of props to recommend on Nationals vs. Mariners.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, June 26.
Monday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs. Angels
Monday, June 26 9:38 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
White Sox ML (+120)  |
Dylan Cease was rightly downgraded in the market at the beginning of the season with his decline in strikeout rate and regression in overall results, but the last few outings suggest that Cease is much closer to his 2022 level once again.
Cease has 40 strikeouts in his last 26 2/3 innings. In the 42 1/3 innings prior to that, Cease managed just 36 punchouts. He's produced a swinging strike rate over 14.7% in each of his last four starts, which he failed to do in any of his 11 starts prior to that. The Stuff+ has increased on Cease's slider after an early season dip and that's after it was the most valuable pitch in all of baseball in 2022.
The market downgraded Cease but it should upgrade him again with the surging whiff rates. Reid Detmers has improved overall relative to last season, but he's still a solidly worse pitcher than Cease and the Angels' lineup depth is really being tested with the current infield injury crisis.
The White Sox have a 97 wRC+ as a team this season against left-handed pitching, compared to just an 84 against righties. This is an ongoing trend for the White Sox that spans multiple seasons and makes sense when you consider how top sluggers Luis Robert Jr., Jake Burger and Eloy Jimenez all mash left-handed pitching.
I'd bet the White Sox at +110 or better.
Pick: White Sox ML (+120)
White Sox vs. Angels
Monday, June 26 9:38 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
White Sox ML (+120) |
Dylan Cease is starting to come alive. He had a bad start to the season and his expected metrics overall are still not great having a great season, but he’s starting to find his form because his last four starts have been good.
He’s only allowed a total of five runs in those four starts and has a combined 32 strikeouts in those four starts. Most importantly, in his last three starts his xFIP has been below 3.5 in each of those starts.
Reid Detmers has been a very average MLB starting pitcher. He has a 4.08 xERA through 13 starts with a very high 10.5 K/9 rate; his problem is control since his BB/9 rate is up at 3.5. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate allowed numbers are pretty concerning considering he’s below the 40th percentile in both.
Both pitchers are mainly reliant on a fastball/slider combination as their main two pitches. Looking through the Angels versus right-handed fastballs and sliders & the White Sox against left-handed fastballs and sliders, both teams are very average, so not much of an advantage for either offense.
Looking at the bullpens, the White Sox have a better Stuff+, xFIP, and a better K-BB% than the Angels.
I have the Angels projected at -102, so I like the value on the White Sox.
Pick: White Sox ML (+120)
Nationals vs. Mariners
Monday, June 26 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Teoscar Hernandez Total Bases and HRs  |
Trevor Williams turned in the best start of his season against the Cardinals last week, but I’m back on board with fading the right-hander. Prior to last week, Williams had given up a home run in six straight games and he ranks in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in both xSLG and barrel%.
Enter Teoscar Hernandez. Brought over in the offseason, Hernandez was expected to provide huge power in the middle of the lineup. It was a very slow start to the season for the righty, but he has begun to turn a corner in June.
In 76 at-bats, Hernandez is hitting .316 with five home runs. His strikeout rate remains high, but Hernandez is barreling balls more consistently and finding a lot more success at the plate.
His numbers across the board have shown promise. His rolling wOBA, ISO and hard-hit% graphs have all taken a drastic step forward in the last couple of weeks. While he is better against left-handed pitching, he is also the best Mariners bat from a power standpoint.
Hernandez ranks inside the top 16% of all hitters in max exit velocity, hard-hit%, barrel rate and xSLG. He’s above average in xBA, too. It’s a great matchup for Hernandez as Williams rarely generates whiffs and his strikeout rate is sub-18%.
I’m backing Hernandez to go over 1.5 total bases (+110) at .5u and to hit a HR (+420) at .1u, both at FanDuel.
Pick: Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) | To Hit a HR (+420)
