Another day in late June means another day full of MLB action.
After a loaded Tuesday slate that featured all 30 teams in action, we have more of the same on deck today. Our writers took advantage with four best bets for Padres vs. Pirates, Tigers vs. Rangers, Phillies vs. Cubs and White Sox vs. Angels.
So, sit back, relax and enjoy a night full of baseball and bets.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Padres vs Pirates
Wednesday, June 28 7:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Wednesday is San Diego Padres ace pitcher Blake Snell to go over 6.5 strikeouts -159 at Caesars.
Snell has reestablished himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball with his recent form and may even be in the mix for the National League Cy Young at the end of the season.
The Padres' hurler has gone over this number in each of his last five starts and has posted at least 11 strikeouts in each of his last three.
Snell has a 30% strikeout percentage this season and gets a road matchup with the Pirates tonight. The Pirates strike out quite a bit, as their projected lineup has combined for a 25% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this season. Four hitters in the Pirates’ projected lineup have at least a 23% strikeout percentage against left-handers.
Given how Snell has pitched lately and the matchup at hand, we have to expect him to continue hitting the over on his strikeout prop.
Pick: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-159) |
Tigers vs Rangers
Wednesday, June 28 8:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 9.5  |
Joey Wentz has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.72 xERA. When he's on the mound, it usually means a bullpen game is coming because very rarely will you see him face the order for a third time. In fact, he's gone over five innings in only six of his 14 starts this season.
Wentz has a high BB/9 rate at 3.9 and a fairly high HR/9 rate at 1.88, which doesn't help his cause against one of the best lineups in baseball.
He's fairly reliant on his fastball, which he throws over 44% of the time, and it's getting drilled to the tune of a .432 xwOBA. The Stuff+ on that pitch is pretty embarrassing as well, sitting at just 79. Overall, he has a Stuff+ rating of just 87 and a Pitching+ rating of 95.
The Rangers are not only one of the best lineups against left-handed pitching, but they absolutely obliterate left-handed fastballs as well. Texas owns a +17.6 run value against that pitch, along with a .362 xwOBA.
Dane Dunning has been good this season, but he's due for a lot of negative regression. Dunning has a 2.76 ERA, but his expected ERA comes in almost double that at 5.09. You're starting to see some of that negative regression lately, as he's given up 12 runs in his last four starts. At the same time, his xFIP has been above five in all of those starts.
Looking at all of Dunning's Statcast metrics, he's a pitcher who's screaming for negative regression even if he's facing one of the worst lineups in baseball.
Both of these bullpens have been subpar in terms of xFIP, Stuff+ and K-BB%, so this could be a hit parade.
I have 10.8 runs projected here, so I like the value on over 9.5 runs at -105.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105) |
Phillies vs Cubs
Wednesday, June 28 8:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8.5 |
Since Aaron Nola's start against the Dodgers in early May, his metrics have all trended back toward normal for him.
In six of his eight starts, his fastball velocity has been above 93 mph. His ERA has dropped to 4.19 in this recent stretch, and the strikeouts have also returned. Nola has 65 Ks in 58 innings.
The Cubs' lineup is one of the more patient in all of baseball, ranking in the top eight in called strike percentage and in the bottom seven in swing rate.
If Nola has his good command and is dominant with first-pitch strikes, he'll be ahead in counts all night long. The Cubs' lineup ranks 18th in wRC+ against righties this year (10th vs. LHP) and comes in below league average at 96 wRC+ overall.
The Phillies are just 25th against lefties because of the lack of right-handed bench options and the loss of the power-hitting Rhys Hoskins. The main lefty options — Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber — are fine against southpaws, but the depth pieces don't fare nearly as well.
Drew Smyly's increased curveball usage has helped his pitch mix, and Philly's free-swinging lineup is a good matchup for him.
You can't discuss a game at Wrigley Field without a look at the weather, which has wind forecasted to blow straight across the field from right to left. It won't have much impact overall, but it could hurt lefty power if anything.
I'd bet the under 8.5 runs at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120 or Better) |
White Sox vs Angels
Wednesday, June 28 9:38 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 9  |
By D.J. James
Lucas Giolito is starting to look like himself again and could be an interesting trade target when the deadline comes around.
He has a 3.41 ERA and a 4.27 ERA, but a lot of the impact on those expected stats came from a poor April. He boasts a 1.50 ERA in June and should continue that success tonight.
He will face Jaime Barria and the Angels tonight. Barria shut down the White Sox the last time he faced them, allowing only four hits over five innings pitched. Expect more of the same in this late-night matchup.
The White Sox have an 87 wRC+ with a sub-7% walk rate off of righties this month. They also have a sub-.700 OPS, and if Barria holds Luis Robert in check, this lineup is essentially shut down.
Now, Los Angeles has hit righties well in June. It owns a 134 wRC+, so there's a reason the total opened relatively high for this game. That said, if the Angels score a few and the White Sox are held toone or two runs, the under will cash.
The Sox own a 3.86 xFIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate in relief, so this is another glaring edge. Los Angeles has a 4.99 xFIP in June, and much of this has to do with control issues. Since the White Sox tend to swing and miss outside of the strike zone, that shouldn't be a problem in this matchup.
These starters should excel, so take the under to 8 (-115).
Pick: Under 9 (Play to 8 at -115) |
