Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
It's Friday, and we have a full slate of Major League Baseball in front of us along with best bets from our Action Network staff. All 30 teams are in action under the lights, including a number of intriguing matchups as we inch closer to next week's trade deadline.
Our MLB analysts have best bets with picks for three games: Yankees vs. Orioles, Mariners vs. Diamondbacks and Red Sox vs. Giants.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, July 28th.
Friday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Yankees vs. Orioles
Friday, July 28 7:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Yankees ML (-124)  |
By D.J. James
Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees are a short favorite against Grayson Rodriguez and the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night.
Cole has been the typical ace baseball fans everywhere expect him to be. On the season, he has a 2.78 ERA, even if his xERA is a touch higher at 3.60. This is because his Average Exit Velocity floats around 89 mph and his strikeout rate is down a few percentage points from last season. That said, he can still dominate, and he has lately. In July, Cole owns a 2.81 ERA over 18 innings.
Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be a future ace, but he has not completely shown that yet. He has a 6.91 ERA against a 5.72 xERA. He has been better since getting recalled from Triple-A, pitching at least five innings in both of his starts, but still holds a 5.06 ERA over those two games.
The Orioles have a July wRC+ of 90 off of righties. The Yankees stand at 89 wRC+, and Aaron Judge is expected to return tonight. If that comes true, the paradigm shifts. Judge completely alters this Yankee batting order.
Baltimore has the better bullpen, but Cole can pitch past six innings, so the Yankee bullpen should be able to hold their own.
Take the Yankees to -140, and if Judge plays, take them to -155.
Pick: Yankees ML (-124)
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks
Friday, July 28 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mariners ML (-130)  |
Logan Gilbert has been good this season, He’s posted a 3.57 xERA and has kept a really low 1.80 BB/9 rate. What makes him good is he has two fantastic out pitches in his slider and curveball. Both have a Stuff+ rating over 110 and have produced a 30% whiff rate this season.
His slider and curveball make him very effective against left-handed hitters, as his xFIP against them is a half-run lower than against righties, which is good because the Diamondbacks will likely have four to five left-handed bats in their lineup tonight.
Tommy Henry is a pitch-to-contact pitcher, as he has one of the lowest K/9 rates among qualified starting pitchers at 6.29, but his control hasn’t been great either with his BB/9 rate up at 3.69.
He is a soft-tossing lefty who throws his 91 mph fastball close to 50% of the time, and it’s a really below-average fastball, as opposing hitters have a .404 xwOBA against it and the Stuff+ on it is just 72. He is in the top 89th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, but his barrel rate allowed is in the 52nd percentile.
He got hit hard in his last two starts against the Blue Jays and Reds for a combined seven runs. So even though the Mariners are average against left-handed pitching, they should be able to get to him.
Seattle in this game has a massive advantage in the bullpen. The Mariners lead Major League Baseball with a 3.71 xFIP, have the fourth-best K-BB ratio, third-best hard-hit rate allowed and are tops in Pitching+. The Diamondbacks have been an average bullpen.
I have the Mariners projected at -163, so I like the value on them at -130
Pick: Mariners ML (-130)
Red Sox vs. Giants
Friday, July 28 10:15 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox ML (+125)  |
Watching the Boston Red Sox this month has been a riot.
They’re 14-5 in July but still 1.5 games back of a wild-card spot. They lost a series to the A’s but swept the Braves. They’re down to three healthy starting pitchers (James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford) because the other three are hurt (Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock – I’m intentionally not including Corey Kluber here).
They moved Nick Pivetta to the bullpen, and he’s become the league’s most dominant middle reliever.
Nick Pivetta in relief this season:
17 G
1.98 ERA
0.80 WHIP
.128 AVG
12.73 K/9.0 IP pic.twitter.com/9eaegdxavk— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 26, 2023
The bullpen is the weak link of this team, yet that unit boasts a 2.29 ERA, a 3.30 xFIP (second in MLB) and a 30.6% strikeout rate over the past two weeks.
And the lineup! I can’t say enough about the lineup!
The Red Sox offense is having a huge July, their 130 wRC+ this month has been the 4th best team month this season. pic.twitter.com/5L20BxMBRB
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) July 24, 2023
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) July 27, 2023
All of Chaim Bloom’s young guns are hitting. All of his veteran acquisitions are hitting. Even Connor Wong has a .873 OPS this month, but his bat isn’t what pops off the screen.
Connor Wong currently leads all of baseball in catcher’s caught stealing above average at 7.
Ranks 7th in baseball in terms of arm strength at 82.6 MPH.
92nd percentile pop time.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) July 27, 2023
If you can’t tell, I’m buying Boston right now. I adore them as road ‘dogs in San Francisco tonight.
Crawford gets the start for Boston against Giants ace Logan Webb.
Webb is the superior pitcher, but the advanced metrics (Stuff+, xERA, et cetera) make the matchup close. Both have looked shaky recently.
I’m happy to sell the Giants because they’ve been the worst offense in MLB during July (73 wRC+, .628 OPS). And while the bullpen has been good, they can’t match the Red Sox's recent relief numbers.
Give me all the Red Sox stock available. I’ll take them in both halves. Sean Zerillo makes this matchup much closer to a coin flip (+108 in F5, +114 full game), anyway.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+125)
