There's nothing quite like a Sunday afternoon loaded with baseball, and that's exactly what's in store for July 30. There are 15 MLB games on the slate today, which means there are numerous betting opportunities for our MLB Best Bets today.
Our betting experts have looked over the odds and identified the top picks on the board, including plays in Cubs vs. Cardinals during the afternoon (2:15 p.m. ET) and Yankees vs. Orioles for Sunday Night Baseball (7:10 p.m. ET).
The MLB best bets are below, so continue reading for today's MLB odds and picks.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Sunday, July 30 2:15 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cubs Moneyline (+120)  |
The market has been quick to come around on Steven Matz, who has looked superb since entering the rotation at the beginning of this month. Matz has gone at least five innings in three of four starts and has held his opponent without an earned run in two of them.
I still give the Cubs the starting pitching advantage here with Kyle Hendricks, who has never been an advanced metrics darling, but, this season, has looked more like the soft-contact inducing, mid-rotation hurler the Cubs came to love in his heyday.
When Hendricks struggled over the past two seasons, it correlated greatly with an increase in walks. He walked more than 6% of batters faced over the past two years, but that number is back down to 3.9% this season, a mark that'd be the second-best rate in his career.
Nothing about Hendricks' advanced stats stand out, but there's also nothing overly concerning. His BABIP and LOB percentage are both sustainable. He's simply working down in the zone, inducing weak contact and not allowing any free passes.
This isn't a matter of buying the Cubs when the market is high, but rather backing an obviously superior pitcher against an erratic left-hander being propped up by a hot, four-start stretch. What's more, the Cubs are vastly superior against southpaws than right-handers, and I trust them to find more success against Matz as they're seeing him for the second time in 10 days.
I like the Cubs at +120 and think Chicago offers decent value at any plus-money number.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline |
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Yankees vs. Orioles
Sunday, July 30 7:10 p.m. ET ESPN |
Orioles Moneyline (-135)  |
This Sunday Night Baseball matchup is way more fun with Baltimore atop the division and Aaron Judge back in the fold.
The O’s are cooking. They’re 15-8 in July and stole a series from Tampa. My favorite thing about the Orioles is their bullpen. Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista were already the best one-two back-end punch in the game, but adding Shintaro Fujinami to the mix makes Baltimore even better.
Don't be fooled by Fujinami’s statistics. He’s been much better since adjusting to the league in mid-May, and I think he likes his middle relief role. He has a respectable 3.81 ERA over his past 26 innings and has cut down on the walks, while continuing to generate Whiffs with his fastball-sinker approach.
New York’s bullpen is fantastic. The Yankees, throughout the season, have received contributions from various relievers. However, that's come to a screeching halt.
Over the past two weeks, New York’s bullpen boasts a walk rate of just under 12% and a Barrel rate of just over 12%. During that stretch, the relievers have a 3.97 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.
Combine those bullpen issues with the Yankees’ lack of offense and Luis Severino’s lack of substance, and I have serious concerns about the Yankees on Sunday Night.
I’m unsure what we’ll get out of Dean Kremer, and Baltimore’s bullpen is due for regression at some point soon. But for now, Kremer shut down the Yankees last week, and Baltimore's bullpen is performing at an elite level (2.5% Barrel rate and 3.91 xFIP over the past two weeks).
Give me some positive regression from Adley Rutschmann and the O’s bats, and we should see the home favorite cruise to a relatively easy Sunday Night victory.
Baltimore is short-handed in the lineup, but the Orioles can’t be worse than the Yankees’ one through nine.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
