MLB Odds & Best Bets: 5 Thursday Picks for Yankees vs. Mariners, Giants vs. Padres, More

There are only eight games on the schedule for Thursday, June 22, but the small slate still has betting value.

Our betting experts have scanned the board and found value in a trio of totals, including Braves vs. Phillies, Padres vs. Giants and A's vs. Guardians. There's also a plus-money moneyline pick and a first five innings moneyline selection, so continue reading for today's best MLB bets.

Thursday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	1:05 p.m. ET	Over 9 (-120)
	1:05 p.m. ET	Phillies Moneyline (+100)
	1:10 p.m. ET	Under 8 (-110)
	3:45 p.m. ET	Over 8 (-110)
	7:05 p.m. ET	Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105)
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Braves vs. Phillies

Thursday, June 22 1:05 p.m. ET MLB Network

Over 9 (-120)

By D.J. James

Bryce Elder has been a serviceable and impressive young starter for the Atlanta Braves, but he's due for some negative regression and it's already starting to hit. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his past three starts and is now tasked with facing a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that is starting to turn it on and looks like the team that made a World Series run in 2022.

Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies and although he has strong peripherals, the results just aren't there yet.

Given that these starters have a tendency to allow baserunners, the over should be in play.

Elder has a 2.60 ERA against a 3.91 xERA, which is solid, but he allows hard contact. He owns a 90.3 mph Average Exit Velocity and a 44.4% Hard-Hit Rate. Those both rank in the 25th percentile or lower, which is concerning. He also only strikes out batters at a 20.7% rate, so he may not be able to exploit an area in which the Phillies have struggled.

The Braves can hit, however. On the season, they have nine active hitters with an xwOBA over .320, including three hitters above .400, against righties. This lineup has no holes. In fact, the Braves have an MLB-best 150 wRC+ with a 17.8% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and a .937 OPS in June.

Aaron Nola owns a 4.66 ERA against a 3.65 xERA. Things will eventually improve for the Phillies starter, but Thursday may not be that day because Atlanta can crush righties. His xSLG ranks in the middle of the pack, which won't get the job done against one of the best offenses in the league. He may be able to limit walks, but otherwise, expect his outing to have a similar result to his most recent start against the Braves (five earned in six innings).

The Phillies finally look like they did to round out last year. They have a 9.2% walk rate, a .787 OPS and a 112 wRC+ off of right-handers in June. They also have five hitters with a xwOBA over .340 against righties this month. The top of the order should take advantage of Elder’s slide to normalcy.

Overall, these offenses are really hitting their stride.

Both bullpens have been sharp lately, but the starters could give up runs early. Elder has allowed plenty of hard contact, and Nola has struggled against Atlanta.

Atlanta and Philadelphia have shown a ton of power, especially at the top of the batting order. Ronald Acuña Jr., Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson and Nick Castellanos should have solid days at the plate.

Take the over from 9 (-120), and play it to 9.5 (-125).

Pick: Over 9 | Play to 9.5

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Braves vs. Phillies

Thursday, June 22 1:05 p.m. ET MLB Network

Phillies Moneyline (+100)

By Anthony Dabbundo

After the Phillies and Braves were rained out on Wednesday night, Philadelphia opted to move Aaron Nola to Thursday's start, while the Braves kept Bryce Elder on his scheduled start date. The Phillies were -130 favorites on Wednesday with Nola projected, and now you can get them as a small home underdog with similar conditions and expected lineups. The only chance is Elder is in for A.J. Smith-Shawver and they project as comparable pitchers for me.

Nola struggled to start the season and saw a significant decrease in his strikeout rate, which stemmed from a dip in his fastball velocity. Part of this was an adjustment to the pitch clock, as Nola is traditionally a slower workers. He's ramped up his fastball velocity in the past month and has improved his zone rate in the past few starts. That's led to more whiffs, more strikeouts and an improved ERA projection.

Nola is always a bit vulnerable to the long ball, but he's not going to give free passes and the wind blowing in from right field at 10-15 mph should help suppress homers against Atlanta. The Phillies will also have their full complement of top relievers behind Nola.

I'd bet the Phillies at -115 or better on Thursday.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline

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Athletics vs. Guardians

Thursday, June 22 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Under 8 (-110)

By Collin Whitchurch

I'm oddly intrigued by JP Sears. His expected indicators aren't great, but he's mainly been dinged by the long ball. In fact, he's given up more home runs (17) than walks (16) this season.

That shouldn't be a problem against a Guardians offense mostly devoid of power. Cleveland, in general, is below-average offensively, but slightly better against lefties than righties (90 wRC+ vs. 86 wRC+, so at least 10% below league average regardless). But the Guardians .129 ISO against southpaws is actually second worst in all of baseball.

Jose Ramirez is significantly worse against lefties, as is Josh Naylor, and Will Brennan — who has been a rare bright spot in the Cleveland lineup of late — left Wednesday's game with an injury and his status for Thursday afternoon is uncertain.

Logan Allen's hot start came to a screeching halt last time out against the Padres, but his past few starts have come against good offenses (SD, HOU, MIN, BAL) and I'm not too concerned with him getting through Oakland's lineup.

Wednesday's game soared over the total, but this afternoon's pitching matchup is much more appealing, and wind will be blowing in from right field at about 10 mph, which will help Sears keep the ball in the park.

Oakland's bullpen is always a bit of a concern, but I like this bet mostly against Cleveland's offense. I'll take the full game Under 8 at -120 or better, but would probably stay away if it drops to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8

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Padres vs. Giants

Thursday, June 22 3:45 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Over 8 (-110)

By D.J. James

The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres are two of the hottest hitting teams in the league when facing lefties. The Giants boast a 141 wRC+ with a .873 OPS off of southpaws in June, while the Padres have a 138 wRC+ and a .876 OPS.

On Thursday, the Giants will send Alex Wood, who isn't their best starter, to the mound. He owns a 4.11 ERA against a 4.46 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph and his Barrel Rate is the highest is has been since 2019.

San Diego will throw Blake Snell, who is in a similar position. Snell owns a 3.48 ERA, but his 4.55 xERA is nothing to write home about. He has a 10.4% Barrel Rate and walks nearly 13% of hitters — not an ideal matchup against a team walking 9% of the time against lefties this month.

In relief, both teams have xFIPs under 4.00 in June. However, both also have a tendency to struggle in middle relief. Since Wood is also walking over 10% of the hitters he faces, it is hard to envision either starter going very deep in this game.

The over opened incredibly low and should be taken up to 9 (-120). These starters are not who they once were.

Pick: Over 8 | Play to 9

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Mariners vs. Yankees

Thursday, June 22 7:05 p.m. ET MLB Network

Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105)

By Nick Shlain

One of my favorite bets on Wednesday's slate is the Seattle Mariners first five innings moneyline (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook).

The New York Yankees broke their losing streak Wednesday and beat the Mariners, but this isn’t the same team without Aaron Judge. Many of the Yankees hitters are struggling without their captain in the lineup.

On the mound, Domingo German has a 4.29 xFIP this season and was absolutely lit up by the Red Sox in his previous outing, giving up seven earned runs over two innings.

Meanwhile, rookie Bryan Woo will be on the mound for the Mariners. He has a 2.32 xFIP and was outstanding in his last start, striking out nine and allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox.

Both of these teams have good bullpens and I believe the Mariners have the starting pitcher and lineup advantage, so taking the first five innings moneyline makes the most sense.

Pick: Mariners First 5 Innings Moneyline

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