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Saturday MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks, Props & Predictions (6/1)

Saturday MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks, Props & Predictions (6/1) article feature image
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled for Saturday, June 1.

Action Network's baseball staff has two Saturday MLB Best Bets, including a moneyline pick for Red Sox vs Tigers as well as a Sonny Gray prop pick in Cardinals vs Phillies.

Continue reading below for our MLB Best Bets: Picks, Props & Predictions.


Saturday MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks, Props & Predictions (6/1)

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
St. Louis Cardinals LogoPhiladelphia Phillies Logo
7:15 p.m.
Boston Red Sox LogoDetroit Tigers Logo
4:10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Red Sox vs. Tigers

Boston Red Sox Logo
Saturday, June 1
4:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Detroit Tigers Logo
Tigers ML (-110)
BetMGM Logo

By D.J. James

Reese Olson is one of the best pitchers in the American League. He simply does not allow home runs. In fact, he gave up his first bomb on May 20 and has not given one up since. His ground-ball rate is exceptional, ranking in the 91st percentile. He does permit some hard contact, but being a ground-ball pitcher benefits him more than anything.

His opponent will be Cooper Criswell and the Boston Red Sox. Criswell has a 4.19 ERA and sub-4.00 xERA. He rarely walks anyone, but his ground-ball rate is not nearly as good as Olson’s. He gives up some hard contact, which could be an issue considering Detroit barely hits the ball on the ground compared to most teams.

The Tigers own one of the lowest ground-ball rates in the league. In May, against righties, they have a 114 wRC+, 7.3% walk rate and 23.4% strikeout rate.

The Red Sox have a 93 wRC+ with a 7.1% walk rate and 24.6% strikeout rate. Basically, this offense is Rafael Devers and whoever can knock him in.

The Tigers have a 3.89 xFIP in relief with a 20.7% strikeout rate. The Red Sox have been good with a 3.60 xFIP, so the bullpen is one area where they have shined. That said, if they are not hitting, it may not matter.

Take the Tigers with the better starting pitcher and the better lineup against righties of late.

Pick: Tigers ML (-110 | Bet to -130)


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Cardinals vs. Phillies

St. Louis Cardinals Logo
Saturday, June 1
7:15 p.m. ET
FOX
Philadelphia Phillies Logo
Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+125)
DraftKings  Logo

By Tony Sartori

Right-hander Sonny Gray is slated to take the mound for St. Louis, and he should be a good candidate to back. Pitching at a Cy Young-caliber level thus far, Gray is 7-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through nine starts.

Regression shouldn't be a huge concern based on his underlying metrics. The right-hander enters this matchup ranked in the 79th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate.

The best aspect of his game thus far has been the ability to retire hitters via punchout. Gray ranks in the 81st percentile in whiff rate and 94th percentile in strikeout rate.

You can find his strikeout prop at 6.5 for this game, a total he has surpassed in two of his past three starts. Obviously, this Philadelphia lineup is loaded, which is why Gray's over 6.5 strikeouts prop is returning +125.

However, through 125 career plate appearances against Gray, this current Phillies lineup possesses a tremendously poor 33.6% strikeout rate and 29.5% whiff rate.

Pick: Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)


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