Wednesday's MLB slate rolls on, and we're here with the best MLB picks and predictions for today.
Our MLB experts have cooked up their four MLB best bets for Wednesday, August 21, all in the name of finding the best value on your MLB picks and predictions amid the latest MLB odds. Two of those games are already in play, but that leaves two MLB bets ready for the taking. Let's jump in!
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, August 21
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:45 p.m. | |
| 3:45 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Justin Perri's Rockies vs Nationals MLB Best Bet: Back the Nats Emphatically
By Justin Perri
The Rockies are one of the worst road teams in baseball, but on Monday, they secured their 18th victory away from home in the series opener against the Nationals. If there's something you don't want to do, even if your season is effectively over, it's lose a series at home to one of the worst teams in baseball. The Nats will be looking to bounce back in a big way, and given the struggles of the Rockies on the road, the Washington Run Line at a plus-money price has too much value.
If you enjoy trends and historical data, the Rockies are 4-13 in their next road game after a road win; they've covered in four of the thirteen losses, all of which they were the underdog for. So, historically, they fail to cover in more than half of their next road games off a road loss. That's a mouthful, and while not predictive, there is precedent for the Rockies to lay a stinker in Wednesday's contest. They used both their top bullpen options to close Tuesday's game out and stranded all seven baserunners on the night, surrendering just a solo home run, which is pretty rare for the Rockies defense.
The Nationals will be behind Mitchell Parker, who had a disastrous start against the Phillies but now gets a great opponent to bounce back against. It's pretty rare to see pitchers do that badly twice in a row, so I do trust Parker in this spot; he should rely on his strong fastball to get it done as he did against the Angels on August 9.
The Rockies will send out Tanner Gordon, who has allowed 22 runs in 27 innings across six starts. While Gordon does feature strong peripherals, his fastball / slider combo sits around the 35th Percentile. His fastball fails to get called strikes and whiffs, while the slider creates an alarming rate of ideal contact for hitters.
Nats to get it done emphatically is the move — lay the run line and consider an alternate run line ladder on Washington as well.
Pick: Nationals -1.5 (+132 | Bet to +120)
| | | |
D.J. James' Rays vs Athletics MLB Best Bet: Bet the A's to Win
By D.J. James
Mitch Spence has been a solid addition to the Oakland Athletics’ starting rotation. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 4.64 ERA against a 3.88 xERA, so he should see some positive regression in the last stretch of the season. He has an Average Exit Velocity under 90 MPH with a below average Hard-Hit Rate, but he boasts a well above-average chase rate and groundball rate. He also has an above-average walk rate, even though he does not get too many strikeouts.
Ryan Pepiot has a 3.69 ERA and 3.67 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is similar to Spence’s with a below average Hard-Hit Rate and groundball rate in the 18th percentile. He does strike out almost 27% of batters, but he has a tendency to issue walks.
The A’s have a 104 wRC+ in the last month against righties with an 8.7% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. They can make contact and work the count, so this could end up a bit of a mismatch for Pepiot. The Rays have a 96 wRC+ with a 9.3% walk rate and 24.7% strikeout rate in the last month.
Tampa Bay’s relief staff has been exceptional with a 3.23 xFIP in the last month. They strike out more than 27% of batters with a low walk rate.
Oakland’s bullpen has been great in that timeframe, too. They have a 3.69 xFIP with a 28% strikeout rate. Their walk rate is a bit higher, but they have options behind Spence.
Bet the A’s to win this one at home from +114 to -110.
Pick: Athletics ML (+114 | Bet to -110)
| | | |
Cody Goggin's White Sox vs Giants MLB Best Bet: Giants to Cover
By Cody Goggin
Garrett Crochet will take the mound on Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants. After making an All-Star Game appearance in his first season as a starter, Crochet was a hot commodity at the trade deadline. However, the White Sox opted to hold onto the left-handed ace, at least for the rest of this season.
Crochet has been great this year, posting a 3.61 ERA and striking out 176 batters in just 124.2 IP. If you hadn’t paid close attention to Crochet over the last month and a half then you may have no idea, but his workload has been cut dramatically over the back half of this season.
It’s clearly obvious at this point that Crochet is having his innings limited. He hasn’t been allowed to go more than four innings in a single start since the end of June, with some of these outings even stretching just two or three innings. Crochet will be the starter today, but he will be handing the ball over early as Chicago won’t let him go deep into the game, which I think provides a value in the market.
Over these past seven starts, Crochet has a 6.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. A lot of this has come from just a couple rough starts but having his career high in innings may also be taking a toll on him down the stretch. The Giants are a league-average offense, but that will still suffice against a Chicago bullpen that ranks 29th in bullpen ERA and 30th in bullpen xFIP.
On the other side, the White Sox have one of the worst offenses in the league and have only gotten worse after trading away assets at the deadline. They rank last in the league for the full season with a 75 wRC+, indicating that they are 25% worse than league average. This has gotten even worse as they have a wRC+ of 69 over the last 30 days.
Logan Webb is a solid starter, and the Giants have a strong bullpen to back him up. The difference between these two squads is large, and I think that the White Sox are getting too much credit in this market due to Crochet being listed as the starter. However, with Crochet on a limited workload and one of the worst bullpens in baseball, I think San Francisco will still be able to win by multiple runs in this game.
Pick: Giants -1.5 (+100 | Bet to -105)
| | | |
Tony Sartori's White Sox vs Giants MLB Best Bet: Yes, We're Betting White Sox ML
By Tony Sartori
You always have to hold your breath when seeing "White Sox ML," but when you give me +205 on a team with the superior starting pitcher, I'm going to look into it. The pitching matchup is Garrett Crochet versus Logan Webb, and Crochet is clearly the superior option.
This season, he outranks Webb in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. The majority of those gaps are substantial as well.
Now, the next logical question is, "But what about the gap between the two lineups?" That is a fair question, and San Francisco is the better team at the dish. However, it's not like the Giants are torching teams offensively. They rank in the bottom half of the league in BA, SLG, home runs and stolen bases.
Considering these variables, I think it's worth taking a shot on the underdog at +205. That is a particularly good price that is available at bet365, a line that is five-to-nine cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: White Sox ML (+205 | Bet to +195)
| | | |
[
