There are 11 games on Thursday's MLB slate, but our MLB betting experts focused in on two games — Nationals vs. Tigers and Red Sox vs. Phillies — and two MLB over/under picks.
Today's MLB best bets are below, so continue reading for Thursday's best MLB picks.
MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nationals vs. Tigers
By Tony Sartori
In this week's edition of "fade Patrick Corbin," we are going to fade both starting pitchers and back the over as right-hander Casey Mize takes the mound for Detroit. Both pitchers have struggled this season with ERAs north of 4.70 and WHIPs north of 1.50.
The underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely for either as both hurlers rank in the bottom 32nd percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Both bullpens also rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA.
Neither lineup is anything special, but the Tigers possess a strong track record against Corbin. Through 65 combined career plate appearances against Corbin, Detroit's current lineup boasts a .387 BA, a .597 SLG and a .434 wOBA.
Washington's lineup has hardly seen Mize, but both his stats and underlying metrics are so poor that the lack of familiarity doesn't bother me.
Pick: Over 8.5 | Play to -115
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Phillies vs. Red Sox
By D.J. James
Aaron Nola has been greatly impressive, as have the rest of the Phillies’ starting pitchers. Nola, however, holds a 2.77 ERA against a 3.28 xERA. Also, his average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are well above average. He was electric in his most recent start and will look for a repeat performance against the Boston Red Sox here.
Tanner Houck is set to start for Boston and has been equally impressive. His ERA is under 2.00 and he hold a 3.23 xERA. Yes, he will likely see a little regression, but he has a fantastic ground-ball rate, despite the hard contact he tends to yield. His strikeout rate is 25%, almost a 4% increase from last year, and he rarely walks anyone.
Offensively, neither team has been particularly effective against righties in the past month. The Red Sox have a 104 wRC+, while the Phillies have a wRC+ of 93, and just announced an injury to catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Boston's bullpen has been fantastic with a 3.27 xFIP over the past month and Philadelphia has somehow been better with a 3.18 xFIP.
Given the collective pitching on each side and the way these offenses have fared against righties, this total is too high. Bet the under down to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8.5 | Play to 7.5
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