We have a full slate for Saturday, July 6, and our Action Network MLB staff has rounded up three MLB Best Bets. The picks include over/under predictions for Red Sox vs Yankees and Giants vs Guardians, as well as a moneyline bet for Phillies vs Braves.
Check out our three Saturday MLB best bets below.
MLB Best Bets: Saturday Picks & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Saturday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 1:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Red Sox vs. Yankees
By Kenny Ducey
After returning from injury to a mixed bag against the Orioles and Mets in mid-June, Gerrit Cole’s velocity was back up in his third start back which helped him to five scoreless against the Blue Jays with six punchouts.
With a return to relevance, I think he’ll be well-positioned to exact some revenge against the Red Sox – a team that’s historically burned him.
This year’s version of the Red Sox is quite different than the ones Cole struggled against. They strike out a lot and hit a ton of ground balls in a reversal of the contact-oriented team we saw a season ago.
Cole’s generally been a fly ball-oriented pitcher throughout his career, as it goes with most strikeout-heavy arms. While that’s usually cause for concern inside Yankee Stadium, the Red Sox have owned an OPS against fly-ball arms that is stunningly 150 points worse than against ground-ballers.
That should help Cole pitch around contact if his elite strikeout numbers take more time to return, though Boston’s terrible plate discipline should help as well.
While I like Cole though, I don’t like the Yankees – a team that has been slumping lately and hasn’t even been able to capitalize on good stylistic matchups. Josh Winckowski has been incredibly effective in his two outings since being stretched out to join the rotation, and his command of the zone and ground-balling ways should mean this powerful Yankees offense remains muted.
Pick: Under 9 (-105)
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Giants vs. Guardians
By Tony Sartori
This matchup should have no issue reaching nine total runs, especially with the Kyle Harrison versus Logan Allen pitching matchup. Both guys rank in the 27th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
While Cleveland possesses one of the best bullpens, San Francisco owns one of the worst. So those two variables offset.
That just leaves the hitting, which again, bodes well for the over. Both lineups rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Finally, there have been nine or more total runs scored in four of Harrison's past six starts and in seven of Allen's past 11.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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Phillies vs. Braves
By D.J. James
This opening line makes no sense. Spencer Schwellenbach has been on the wrong side of the luck coin. He has an ERA of 5.68 and xERA under 4.00. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.6 MPH with a walk rate of only 6.5%, an above average groundball rate, and an excellent chase rate.
However, his opponent will be Ranger Suárez and the Philadelphia Phillies. Suárez is a Cy Young candidate for a reason as his ground-ball rate is in the 93rd percentile. He has a lower Average Exit Velocity and a far better Hard-Hit Rate than Schwellenbach. In addition, Suárez strikes out more hitters and walks fewer hitters.
The Atlanta Braves have been above average against lefties in the last month with a 110 wRC+. They have a walk rate below 6% and a strikeout rate around 24% which should play into Suárez’s approach.
The Phils have hit righties better. Although Schwellenbach should be better going forward, Philadelphia has a 121 wRC+ off of righties with a 7.4% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate.
In relief, the Braves and Phillies have both been excellent since June 6. The Braves have a 3.10 xFIP, while the Phillies sit at 3.34.
Since the Phillies are better at the dish in this matchup and have the better starter, a relatively even line is not justified. Take Philly to win this game on the road from -110. Play them to -135.
Pick: Phillies ML (-110)
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