We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
Columbus Clippers @ Buffalo Bisons
Tuesday, 6:05 PM ET
These are two teams with roughly the same record who are not equals, and the superior squad is the road team. That means we might see some very playable prices on the Clippers this series.
Columbus is finally starting to hit.
The 2024 No. 1 overall pick, Travis Bazzana, is starting to look the part. Kody Huff, Stuart Fairchild, and Milan Tolentino give the Clippers the strongest bottom of the order you’ll find at the Triple-A level. Cooper Ingle is one of the better offensive catchers in the Minors. CJ Kayfus was recently sent back down to Columbus, which is massive, after being a beast in his short time at Triple-A last year. Kahlil Wilson is another former first-round pick, entering play with a .934 OPS. Former Rockies prospect Nolan Jones has shown success at the Minor League level.
This lineup is loaded.
As mentioned, Buffalo has a decent record (Columbus is 11-10, while Buffalo is 10-11), but the Bisons have played an easy schedule. They’ve played Omaha, Syracuse, and Rochester, three teams that are not high on my power rankings due to poor lineups, which, in turn, means Buffalo’s disastrous pitching staff hasn’t been fully exposed yet.
The Blue Jays have had so many pitching injuries at the MLB level, and they’ve traded away prospect depth in the attempt to build a win-now team.
While Trey Yesavage is likely to get the ball on Tuesday for Buffalo, he still hasn’t been great in his rehab starts so far, and he won’t go more than four or five innings, so that likely won’t justify the price tag.
I see Columbus doing some serious damage in this series.
Pick: Columbus Clippers ML
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Gwinnett Stripers
Tuesday, 6:05 PM ET
We should see great pitching this week between these two teams, and neither team has a great lineup. So, we should see plenty of Unders this week.
Spencer Strider is beginning his rehab at Gwinnett, and he’ll likely get two starts this week. At the same time, he should face off against Braxton Garrett in both games, likely on Tuesday and Sunday.
Strider rips the Triple-A level. He had 27 strikeouts across 13 ⅔ innings last season. I think he’ll go on a similar run this year to get back in Atlanta’s rotation.
Garrett has been one of the most dominant Triple-A pitchers this season.
Additionally, we can expect some other great pitching matchups this week, with Jacksonville’s Robby Snelling matching up against Gwinnett’s JR Ritchie later this week.
Also, both teams boast elite bullpens, so I’ll be targeting Unders across all six games this week.
Pick: Under
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- Columbus Clippers ML (@ Buffalo Bisons, 6:05 PM ET)
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Gwinnett Stripers Under (6:05 PM ET)
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