The Toronto Blue Jays host the Minnesota Twins on April 11, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by +1.5 (-192) on the run line. The Twins are -102 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+158) on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs (-110 / -110).
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Blue Jays Predictions, Pick
- Twins vs Blue Jays Pick: Blue Jays ML (-108)
My Twins vs Blue Jays best bet is on Toronto to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, and Total
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -110o / -110u | -102 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -110o / -110u | -116 |
- Twins vs Blue Jays spread: Twins -1.5 (+158), Blue Jays +1.5 (-192)
- Twins vs Blue Jays over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Twins vs Blue Jays moneyline: Twins -102, Blue Jays -116
Twins vs Blue Jays Pitchers
| RHP Joe Ryan (MIN) | Stat | LHP Eric Lauer (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.40 / 3.05 | ERA / xERA | 4.91 / 2.89 |
| 2.03 / 3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 3.89 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 19.7 | K-BB% | 15.6 |
| 24.3 | GB% | 42.1 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 109 | Location+ | 99 |
Twins vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Without getting too concerned about Joe Ryan’s velocity, after opening up at 93.9 mph in his first start, he’s sat at 92.2 mph and 92.3 mph in each of his last two.
That could certainly be cold weather in Kansas City and Minnesota, and besides getting smoked for four barrels in the first of those starts, there’s nothing out of line in the Twins starter peripherals (19.7 K-BB%).
Pitch modeling is sending mixed signals (4.14 Bot ERA, but 111 Pitching+) and doesn’t inform us any further.
Either way, his 24.3 GB% in three starts could be a problem against a contact-prone lineup in Toronto.
The Rogers Centre Home Run Park Factor jumped up to 118 last season (single season) after some hitter- friendly renovations. While the Blue Jays haven’t gotten off to the hottest start, they did put 10 runs on the board on Friday night, and their standard lineup against RHP this year averages a .172 ISO against pitchers from that side since last year.
Eric Lauer came out of nowhere to post a career year, sustaining a 20.4 K-BB% over 10 starts and 69 innings last year before trailing off and ending the year in the bullpen. Injuries have forced him into a starting role again this April, and we’ve gotten diverse results so far.
After striking out nine Athletics, Lauer walked three White Sox without a strikeout and did not make it past the second inning. However, there were some extenuating circumstances: Lauer was suffering the aftereffects of a bout with the flu. He was down nearly 3 mph.
We can probably throw that out, but even without expecting him to repeat his performance against the A’s, Lauer ended with both a 3.88 SIERA and xERA last year, which should be competent enough against a stars and scrubs Twins lineup against LHP.
Three projected Twins exceed a 145 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, but four also reside below 85.
Even a short outing from Lauer would give it over to a rested and effective Toronto bullpen with top 10 estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) in the league so far, averaging around three and a half.
Meanwhile, Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers haven’t pitched since Wednesday. It would also have the added benefit of making the Twins adjust to right-handed pitching mid-game.
The Minnesota bullpen has neither been good (bottom third of the league estimators) nor rested. There was a note on social media on Friday about the Twins somehow building a bullpen without a single reliever averaging 95 mph on their fastball.
The remaining factors also significantly bolster the Jays with a projected lineup Fielding Run Value of 36 and four Base Running Runs to Minnesota’s -15 and -2.
It’s not a large edge, but it is an actionable one at the current price (-108) on FanDuel.
Pick: Blue Jays -108, 0.54u (FanDuel | Play to -120)
