The Cleveland Guardians (16-13) host the Minnesota Twins (13-17) on April 30, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field on Wednesday is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game can be streamed on MLB.TV.
Right-handers Pablo Lopez and Luis L. Ortiz square off in the third game of this AL Central series on Wednesday night — one of them is key to my Twins vs Guardians prediction, which you can find below.
My Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians pick:Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts
My Twins vs Guardians best bet for Wednesday is Pablo Lopez to go under his strikeout total of 5.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -161 | 7 -120o / -102u | -132 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +135 | 7 -120o / -102u | +112 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) | Stat | RHP Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.08 / 3.12 | ERA /xERA | 5.96 / 5.08 |
| 2.99 / 3.42 | FIP / xFIP | 4.33 / 3.90 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.56 |
| 18% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 46.9% | GB% | 44.4% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 120 | Location+ | 94 |
Alex Kolodziej’s Twins vs Guardians Preview
Twins Player Prop Pick: Pablo Lopez Strikeouts
The Guardians offense has been a tough watch out the gates. Cleveland enters Wednesday’s game vs. the division-rival Twins sporting the fifth-worst expected batting average (xBA) and seventh-worst expected slugging (xSLG).
However, despite shortcomings at the plate, there may be value in fading Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez today as he gears up to face the Guardians.
Today, Lopez’ strikeout line is set at over/under 5.5. Our advanced strikeout models anticipate Lopez falling short, with an estimated 4.6 punch outs.
Notably, Cleveland’s top offensive hitters have seen Lopez well. Leadoff hitter Steven Kwan is 7-for-14 is his career vs. Lopez, while Jose Ramirez is hitting .368 across 19 at-bats.
Lopez is missing barrels at a great rate and doesn’t walk a lot of batters, per his Statcast metrics. However, he’s not generating a ton of whiffs.
It may be a bit pricy to play the under on the surface (-142, FanDuel), yet our data still highlights a positive edge.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142; FanDuel)
Moneyline
I have no play on the Twins-Guardians moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also passing on the spread for this game.
Over/Under
No player on the game total as well.
