The Guardians host the Twins on Monday, July 20. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Twins are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians Pick: Twins ML (Play to -150)
My Twins vs Guardians best bet is on the Twins to straight up. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Guardians Odds, Run Line
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | -132 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -122o / +100u | +112 |
- Twins vs Guardians moneyline: Twins -132, Guardians +112
- Twins vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
- Twins vs Guardians spread: Twins -1.5
Twins vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Joe Ryan (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 3-9 |
| 3.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.85 / 3.20 | ERA / xERA | 3.90 / 4.66 |
| 2.77 / 3.46 | FIP / xFIP | 4.82 / 4.33 |
| 22.9% | K-BB% | 11.6% |
| 35.9% | GB% | 40.2% |
| .287 | BABIP | .242 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Twins vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Minnesota is squarely in the mix for a playoff spot, with a huge series against the Guardians looming. There’s no better way to start a series than handing the ball to an ace — and the Twins have one in Joe Ryan.
Ryan is enjoying his best MLB season, posting a 2.85 ERA with a 3.20 xERA and a 2.78 FIP. He's proven to be one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball, tallying over 10 K/9 for the third time in five seasons. The biggest change for Ryan? The home run ball isn't hurting him as much, cutting his HR/9 nearly in half, from 1.37 to 0.82.
In the past, Byron Buxton being out of the lineup would be a death sentence. Minnesota has been without Buxton for about two weeks, and it still ranks seventh in MLB with a 111 wRC+. Buxton could return to the Twins lineup in this series and possibly even this game. However, I'm operating as if the Twins don't have him.
Nine Twins' batters have a wRC+ better than 100 since June 20th (including Buxton). Trevor Larnach leads the team with a 157 wRC+ while Luke Keaschall checks in with a 137 and Josh Bell has four homers in his last 23 games.
A shaky bullpen is the biggest question for Minnesota. Ryan will give them 6+ innings more than likely, which he's done in nine of his past 11 outings. That'll limit the Twins' chance for a bullpen implosion. The "closer" is Yoendrys Gomez, who has a 5.18 xERA and 4.71 FIP compared to his 3.43 ERA.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Tanner Bibee will look to outduel Ryan in this one, and he's coming in on a heater of his own. Since the calendar flipped to June, Bibee has a 2.86 ERA in his last seven starts (44 1/3 innings). I don't view it as sustainable, as his xERA is 4.52 and his FIP is 4.83 in that span.
The analytics aren't fond of Bibee due to his lack of strikeouts. He has a 5.53 K/9 in his last 44 innings and is below league average in whiff rate, chase rate, and strikeout rate. Bibee will need the Twins to hit into some outs to get through this one.
Cleveland could really use Jose Ramirez back from injury. Without him, the Guardians' offense is shaky, as they rank 24th in MLB with an 87 wRC+ since June 20th.
Usually, it's a bad formula to have the fifth fewest home runs and the second worst strikeout rate in a month, and that's the case for the Guardians.
The good news is Steven Kwan is finally contributing for the first time since last All-Star break, posting a 151 wRC+ in his last 24 games. Kwan and Chase DeLauter are the only two keeping the Cleveland offense from dropping further down the wRC+ leaderboard.
Twins vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm rolling with the better pitcher and offense in this matchup. Cleveland needs a low-scoring game to have a chance to win this one, but I'm not sure Bibee can hold down this Twins offense long enough to pull out the win.
Pick: Twins ML (Play to -150)
