The Cincinnati Reds host the Minnesota Twins on Thursday, June 19, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Ohio and Twins TV.
The streaking Reds go for the series sweep of the Twins on Thursday afternoon. Should bettors ride the Reds in the series finale?
Find my Twins vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Twins vs Reds Prediction
- Twins vs Reds picks: Reds Moneyline (+108 | Play to +100)
My Twins vs Reds best bet is the Reds moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Reds Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -120o / -101u | -105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -183 | 9 -120o / -101u | -115 |
Twins vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.30 / 4.39 | ERA /xERA | 3.92 / 3.88 |
| 4.34 / 4.58 | FIP / xFIP | 4.02 / 4.32 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 9.5% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 39.9% | GB% | 37.3% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 113 | Location+ | 109 |
Tony Sartori's Twins vs Reds Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: Inconsistent Paddack
It’s been an inconsistent campaign for Chris Paddack. Through 14 starts, the right-hander is 2-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse. Entering this matchup, Paddack sports a 4.39 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season. In that outing, he surrendered eight runs on 12 hits in just four innings en route to a 10-3 loss.
A similar result could be in store Thursday, especially considering Minnesota’s struggles at the plate this season. The Twins rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Martinez and Cincy Flying High
On the other hand, Cincinnati ranks in the top half of the league in each of those four categories. Not only will the Reds have the hitting advantage, but they’ll also hold the edge in starting pitching.
Nick Martinez has excelled since moving from the bullpen to the rotation. Over the past two seasons, Martinez boasts a 3.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
That success is likely to continue against the Twins. In his lone start against them last season, Martinez allowed just one run on three hits through six innings.
Cincinnati won that game 11-1.
With the superior lineup and starting pitcher, it’s worth taking a shot on the Reds at plus money in this spot.
Twins vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
The one advantage Minnesota holds in this matchup is its bullpen. This season, the Twins’ relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in each of those four categories. That discrepancy helps explain the +108 price tag on the Reds, but it still doesn’t justify it, given the clear edge they hold in both starting pitching and offensive production.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+108 | Play to +100)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Reds moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Cincinnati to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don't trust Paddack.
