The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday, July 9. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BREW and MLB.TV.
The Brewers are favored by -135 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Picks
- Brewers vs Cardinals Pick: Under 8.5
My Brewers vs Cardinals best bet is under 8.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Cardinals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8 -119o / -101u | -142 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 8 -119o / -101u | +118 |
- Brewers vs Cardinals Moneyline: Brewers ML -142, Cardinals ML +118
- Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under: 8 Total Runs
- Brewers vs Cardinals Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+124), Cardinals +1.5 (-149)
Brewers vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers
| Logan Henderson | Stat | Andre Pallante |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.74 / 2.99 | ERA / xERA | 3.60 / 3.69 |
| 2.42 / 3.08 | FIP / xFIP | 3.92 / 4.08 |
| 26.7 | K-BB% | 10.8 |
| 18.5 | GB% | 53.9 |
| .308 | BABIP | .280 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 105 | Location+ | 106 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Preview
I’m a Logan Henderson fan and think he could have been another Milwaukee breakout this season if he hadn’t been injured five starts in. The 3.21 wFIP BARTOLO exhibits tells you how well he was pitching (26.7 K-BB%, 29.6 GB%).
His largest small-sample problem was an 18.5 GB% rate, which led to five of his 16 hard-hit batted balls coming off the barrel.
That may not be a problem here. Do you know which park suppresses home runs the most?
That would be Busch Stadium in St Louis at 24%.
Andre Pallante comparatively has just a 17.6 K%, but with most of his contact on the ground (53.9%) and few walks (6.8%), he’s been able to keep his 3.60 ERA about one-third of a run below his weighted estimators because the Cardinals have such a strong defense (15 Runs Prevented, 21 OAA, projected defense 23 FRV).
As long as he keeps doing those good things and keeps the same defense behind him, that may be sustainable with a lower strikeout rate.
The Brewers have a scrappy offense, but are just a 98 wRC+ team on the road. The projected lineup includes three batters with a .220+ ISO against RHP, but no one else with a .140 ISO.
It’s a navigable, though not easy, matchup if Pallante can keep grinding ground balls without free passes.
The projected St. Louis lineup has a 105 wRC+, but just .153 ISO against RHP. They have just a 99 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 89 wRC+ at home. Also a navigable lineup.
We’ve already talked about a strong Cardinal defense, but the Brewer one is more neutral, which still shouldn't hurt the under.
Bullpens… well, those are a problem. Both have bottom-third-of-the-league estimators over the last 30 days, but while St Louis is BARTOLO’s 27th-ranked bullpen, the Brewers are 12th.
Brewers vs Cardinals Pick to Bet
Finally, Busch plays 4% below average in run environments, with no weather sources suggesting much of an impact.
Scheduled umpire Todd Tichenor does bring this 2.4% back toward average, but I still believe 8.5 runs is a bit much for this matchup in a power-suppressing park. Action Labs has even tracked a reverse line move on the total.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-108 · 0.54 Units)
