Brewers vs Braves odds (via BetMGM) for Wednesday have the Braves as -165 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-120o / +100u). First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park.
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee, while Atlanta is set to hand the ball to Chris Sale in this battle between aces. Sale, who was dominant in July with a 2.45 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 29 1 /3 innings, is the betting favorite for the NL Cy Young Award (+110 at DraftKings).
Read my Wednesday MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Braves prediction for this National League clash below. You can also find the latest MLB odds plus a head-to-head comparison of Peralta and Sale.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 8 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -155 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-165 | 8 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +130 |
Starting Pitchers for Brewers vs Braves
| RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) | Stat | LHP Chris Sale (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 13-3 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 3.89 / 3.71 | ERA /xERA | 2.71 / 2.64 |
| 3.96 / 3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 2.32 / 2.65 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 0.95 |
| 20.6% | K-BB% | 26.4% |
| 38.4% | GB% | 47.9% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 98 | Location+ | 104 |
Tony Sartori's Brewers vs Braves Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Can Peralta Continue Strong Stretch?
It's been a volatile season for Peralta, but his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is likely looming. The right-hander boasts a 3.71 xERA and ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate.
We've already seen this expected positive regression come to fruition recently. Peralta boasts a 2.60 ERA over his past three starts, the most recent of which came against Atlanta.
He surrendered just two runs on three hits through six innings in that outing. Additionally, Peralta is 2-1 with a commanding 2.57 ERA over his past five starts against the Braves.
Following the right-hander is one of the league's best bullpens as Milwaukee's relief staff ranks third in ERA this season.
However, run support is certainly not guaranteed for this pitching staff. Milwaukee's lineup possesses a mere .171 xBA, a .249 xSLG and a .207 xwOBA through 62 combined career plate appearances against Sale.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Expect Sale to Dominate
The Brewers' pitching staff should be trusted in this matchup, but Atlanta's is even stronger. The Braves' bullpen ranks second in the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
However, they probably won't be called upon too early as Sale is the front-runner for NL Cy Young Award. The southpaw is 13-3 through 20 starts and has posted a 2.71 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in the process.
His analytics are somehow even stronger. Sale boasts a 2.64 xERA and ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
He's allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past nine starts and is 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA over that stretch.
That success is likely to continue against Milwaukee, a team Sale sports a 1.66 ERA against through three career meetings.
While pitching hasn't been an issue, run support remains a question mark for Atlanta. The Braves rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP and stolen bases.
Brewers-Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Pretty much every variable in this game points to the under. Both starting pitchers rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the top three in ERA. Although both lineups are capable of producing runs, these starting pitchers possess excellent track records against their opponents.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on Under 7.5 at -102 via FanDuel. That line that is eight cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Under 7.5 | Play to -110 |
What is QuickSlip?
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Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline.
While Sale is better than Peralta, Milwaukee outranks Atlanta in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, OPS and stolen bases.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line.
I like the Brewers at +1.5, but not at -160 or longer, which is where the entire market rests at the time of writing.
Over/Under
Bet the under at 7.5.
