The San Diego Padres host the Miami Marlins on May 26, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Read our Marlins vs Padres prediction and MLB pick below.
My Marlins vs Padres Prediction
- Marlins vs Padres Pick: Marlins F5 ML (+100, BetMGM)
My Marlins vs Padres best bet is on Miami's first-half ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Marlins vs Padres Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -155 |
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ryan Weathers (MIA) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 1.80 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 3.49 / 5.57 |
| 4.18 / 3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 5.08 / 5.72 |
| 0.80 | WHIP | 0.92 |
| 21.6% | K-BB% | 0.5% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 42.1% |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 115 | Location+ | 98 |
Charlie Wright’s Marlins vs Padres Betting Analysis
Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Weathers gained steam in Spring Training with improved velocity and excellent results. He allowed just one earned run across four appearances, but a forearm strain paused the hype train and sidelined him for the first six weeks of the regular season.
But he returned in mid-May and pitched well in two tough spots, allowing two earned runs across 10 innings, both against the Cubs. Chicago ranks second among MLB lineups in wRC+ against southpaws, so it’s promising that Weathers hung around.
The Padres are closer to a middling offense against left-handed pitching, so this is a much better spot for Weathers, who has posted career-highs in swinging-strike and CSW rate.
The Fish started slow in the batter’s box but have picked it up on offense, now ranking 15th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month.
They also get a soft matchup on Monday.
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez has a 3.49 ERA despite some of the weakest metrics among MLB starters — his xERA (5.57), xFIP (5.72), and SIERA (5.74) are more than two runs higher. He ranks in the bottom 2% of qualified pitchers in whiff and strikeout rates.
He’s allowed just six earned runs across four starts this month, but his xFIP and SIERA sit well north of four.
The luck has to run out eventually.
Pick: Marlins F5 ML (+100, BetMGM)
