The Boston Red Sox host the Miami Marlins on August 17, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
The Red Sox will look to sweep this series after winning the first two games, and will have ace Garrett Crochet on the mound today. Janson Junk will oppose him for the Marlins.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction
- Marlins vs Red Sox pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
My Marlins vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Red Sox Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -105o / -116u | +202 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -121 | 8.5 -105o / -116u | -252 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Janson Junk (MIA) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.9 |
| 4.06 / 4.14 | ERA / xERA | 2.48 / 2.96 |
| 2.99 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 2.54 / 2.72 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 14.5 | K-BB% | 24.2 |
| 38.9 | GB% | 49.1 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 116 | Location+ | 98 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Preview
Janson Junk will start for the Marlins, and although he had a rough spell recently, his last two outings were very positive.
In those two starts, Junk bounced back with just three earned runs in five innings pitched each. More encouraging for this game, though, are his splits.
The Florida starter performs better on the road, with a 3.70 away ERA, and in day games, with 3.86.
He will face a Red Sox offense that has dipped a bit this month, going from 11th overall in wRC+ this season to the 14th spot in the August rankings.
Boston's ace Garrett Crochet will oppose Junk on the mound.
His season has been outstanding, and his splits also align with the conditions today. Crochet does better at home, with a 2.43 ERA, and in day games, with a 1.99 ERA.
Plus, both offenses have fallen in ISO this month: the Marlins rank 16th with .166, and the Red Sox are 25th with .141.
Our Bet Labs recommendation is to play the under.
This system targets Sunday MLB games where the home team is coming off 1–2 consecutive overs, suggesting recent offensive outperformance or inflated totals.
The theory is that on Sundays —often the final game of a series and an early start— teams may rest key hitters, lineups can be inconsistent, and pitchers often perform better against lineups they’ve already seen.
With an opening total in the 8 to 9.5 run range, the line is high enough to offer under value when offensive regression is likely.
Betting the under in these specific setups has historically yielded a positive ROI over time, taking Unders with moderate totals (8 to 9.5) in Sunday games with home teams on an Over streak.
Sunday games usually wrap up the series and are played during the day, usually after a night game.
Hitters may tend to be worn out by the end of the week, and collectively as a league, players tend to take their rest days on Sundays, so there's an added advantage towards Unders.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-116, DraftKings)
