The Subway Series renews for one final game in the 2024 season, as the New York Yankees look to split the series against the New York Mets on Wednesday.
A pair of veteran arms will take the mound for this finale in Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Sean Manaea for the Mets.
There are a lot of different angles to roll with for Mets vs Yankees parlay, so let's get into it this MLB SGP.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Yankees MLB Parlay: Wednesday SGP Picks
- Under 8.5 (-108)
- Gerrit Cole 8+ Strikeouts (+150)
- Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Parlay Odds: +1000 (DraftKings)
Under 8.5
For the total/team pick of this same-game parlay, I’m looking at under 8.5 total at -108 odds.
I’m a bit surprised the total is this high since Cole has looked like himself lately, holding the Rays and Orioles to one run in six innings in both outings.
The Mets offense ranks sixth in wRC+ in July, but matching up against Cole won't be easy.
Plus, several of the lineup's mainstays have struggled lately, Brandon Nimmo has gone 3-for-29 in his past seven games, J.D. Martinez is 4-for-29 and Francisco Alvarez is 4-for-29.
Three of the bats the Mets relied on during their hot stretch in June haven't hit well since returning from the break, and that intensifies the pressure on Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and others.
Meanwhile, the Yankees offense is in disarray against southpaws, like Manaea, without Giancarlo Stanton backing up Aaron Judge.
Against another southpaw on Tuesday, the Yankees led off with Jahmai Jones — who isn’t an MLB-caliber hitter — and J.D. Davis occupied the cleanup spot. He’s probably a few days away from being sent his walking papers.
Without Stanton protecting Judge, it’s easy to walk him, like the Mets did four times in the series opener.
That should help keep the scoring to a minimum, as long as Manaea — who enters this Subway Series showdown with a 3.73 ERA and a strong 3.85 FIP — continues performing well.
The biggest problem Manaea faces is walks, posting a very high 3.64 BB/9, which is a career-high. He'll be fine walking Judge and Juan Soto several times, so he'll likely have an elevated walk total.
Believe it or not, Manaea's 3.73 ERA is the second-best of his career in a full season, and his 3.85 FIP is the third-best. For a pitcher who once held immense trade value when the Padres dealt for him, he's back into form after a few rough seasons.
Manaea been a total steal in Queens.
Gerrit Cole
8+ Strikeouts (+150)
Gerrit Cole is so back, and not in terms of actually taking the mound. He’s been “back” for six weeks, but he’s back to pitching like the Cy Young winner from a season ago.
After a few bumpy starts, Cole has allowed one run in three of his past four outings while punching out six or more in four consecutive outings.
While the Mets rank 21st in strikeout percentage, it’s a bit misleading based on the current roster makeup. Five of the Mets' likely starters against Cole punch out at least 22% of the time, while Alonso and Harrison Bader fall just shy at 20%.
Cole will have plenty of candidates to reach the eight-strikeout total.
Instead of adding over 6.5 strikeouts for Cole, I’m aiming for a major odds booster by grabbing the 8+ Ks alt line. If Cole can get seven, then eight doesn't seem far-fetched.
We're talking about one of the best in the sport. I'll back him while the books continue to adjust.
Anthony Volpe
Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
For the last leg of the parlay, I'm rolling with a Yankees hitter not named Judge or Soto to total over 1.5 total bases.
That Yankees hitter is Anthony Volpe, who is hitting once again. He hit well early on, then couldn't buy a hit for over a month. Now, in his last seven games, he's up to a .346 average with a .577 slugging percentage.
In addition, Volpe has totaled more than 1.5 total bases in five of the Yankees' past six games. With the Mets' plan of walking the big boppers, Volpe should see pitches to hit.
