Mets vs Pirates Odds
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+114 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -178 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-134 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +146 |
The New York Mets travel to PNC Park to kick off an important three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday.
Both of these teams are alive in the NL wild-card race. The Mets (42-43) are 14 games out of the NL East lead but just 2 1/2 out of the final wild-card spot. Pittsburgh is in a similar situation, sitting 10 games out in the NL Central but four games behind in the wild-card race. There's a chance that both of these teams are still fighting for this spot toward the end of the year, so this series could have increased importance.
Mets vs Pirates odds for the Friday series opener have the Mets as -134 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-105o / -115u). The total is one of the lowest of the Friday MLB slate as this could be a potential pitchers' duel with the Mets' Luis Severino taking on Pirates phenom Paul Skenes.
Let's get to my Mets vs Pirates prediction as we look at the MLB odds for Friday, July 5.
New York Mets
Luis Severino will start for the Mets tonight. The 30-year-old righty sports a 3.42 ERA with a 3.55 xERA but a 4.36 SIERA. Part of the reason for this divergence in his ERA and SIERA is likely due to his low strikeout totals, as he has just 74 over 97 1/3 innings.
Out of 71 qualified pitchers, Severino ranks 26th in Stuff+, 44th in Location+ and 43rd in Pitching+. He has a 12th-percentile whiff rate and a 25th-percentile strikeout rate to go along with his league-average walk rate.
Severino has excelled at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact this season despite his low whiff numbers. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in ground-ball rate, 86th percentile in barrel rate 86th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 67th percentile in hard-hit rate.
As a team, the Mets rank fifth in wRC+ and ninth in wOBA this season. They have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate and a league-average walk rate while ranking 10th in on-base percentage and fifth in ISO.
New York has been hitting the ball hard, coming into the game sixth in hard-hit rate, third in barrel rate and seventh in average exit velocity. They hit 41.9% of their balls on the ground, ranking 18th in the league.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The electric Paul Skenes will take the bump for Pittsburgh on Friday night. The rookie has been as advertised so far, starting his Major League career with a 2.06 ERA and 70 strikeouts over his first 52 1/3 innings.
Skenes has been consistently effective, never allowing more than three runs in a single start. He has a quality start in seven of his last eight starts and often doesn’t allow more than one run. Out of 147 pitchers with 50-plus innings pitched, Skenes ranks 18th in Stuff+ with a mark of 112, 10th in Location+ and fourth in Pitching+.
Skenes is known for his 99.2 average fastball velocity, but he also ranks in the 99th percentile in off-speed run value. He has a whiff rate that sits in the 83rd percentile, a strikeout rate in the 96th percentile and a walk rate in the 89th percentile.
However, batters have made some quality contact against Skenes when they get ahold of the ball. He's in the 38th percentile in average exit velocity, 52nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 66th percentile in barrel rate.
Most of these batted balls have ended up on the ground and resulted in little damage, but it's worth noting that Skenes’ 48.4% ground-ball rate ranks in the 76th percentile.
Offensively, the Pirates have left a lot to be desired this season. They rank 27th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA. Pittsburgh also sits 28th in slugging percentage, 26th in on-base percentage and 27th in ISO while owning the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball.
The Statcast metrics for the Pirates look much better, as they rank 12th in average exit velocity, ninth in barrel rate and seventh in hard-hit rate. They haven't turned that into much success, though, as they hold the third-highest ground-ball rate in the league and rank 28th in launch angle.
Mets vs Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
Skenes looks the part of an ace, and all of his metrics have backed it up. The Mets offense has been hot of late, but Skenes is a special talent and could still have the upper hand in this matchup.
On the other side, Severino has posted strong numbers this season by limiting hard contact and inducing ground balls. This Pittsburgh team hits plenty of balls on the ground, and while it can hit it hard, this approach should result in Severino having a decent start.
I think we'll see a lower-scoring affair when both of these starters are in the game. Both have some advantages in this matchup that should work in their favor, so they have a high probability of turning in quality starts.
For that reason, I like taking the under for the first five innings at 4.5 runs.
