The Mets hand the ball to right-hander Luis Severino, while right-hander Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates this Friday at PNC Park.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same game parlay for Mets vs Pirates on Friday, July 5.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Pirates Parlay: SGP Picks
- Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+122)
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-136)
- Pirates ML (-124)
Parlay Odds: +430 (FanDuel)
Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+122)
While Severino has put together a strong campaign, he has not found success in the strikeout department. He ranks in the 12th percentile in whiff rate and 25th percentile in strikeout rate.
Subsequently, the right-hander has recorded four or fewer punchouts in seven of his past nine starts. These woes are likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team he has recorded four or fewer strikeouts against in two of the three career meetings.
This current Pirates lineup possesses a mere 19.6% strikeout rate and 16.9% whiff rate through 51 combined career plate appearances against Severino.
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Meanwhile, Skenes looks to continue his dominant rookie campaign. Through his first nine starts, the former first overall pick is 4-0 with a commanding 2.06 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
His underlying metrics equally dominating as he ranks in the 93rd percentile in xERA and 84th percentile in xBA. Skenes' best attribute is his ability to retire hitters via punchout.
He ranks in the 69th percentile in chase rate, 83rd percentile in whiff rate and 96th percentile in strikeout rate. While 7.5 is a large total, he has surpassed this number in five of his past six starts.
It also won't help New York's cause that not a single member of its team has faced Skenes prior to Friday.
Pirates ML (-124)
If we are fading Severino while simultaneously backing Skenes, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Pittsburgh to win this game. First, the starting pitching edge goes to the Pirates.
Skenes outranks Severino in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate.
Second, I would argue that the bullpen matchup is a wash as both relief staffs possess a nearly identical FIP. Obviously, home field is also in Pittsburgh's favor.
That just leaves hitting, which is New York's main advantage in this contest. However, I don't think the gap between these two lineups is as wide as the gap between the starting pitchers, especially when none of the Mets' batters have ever hit against Skenes prior to Friday.
