Mets vs Nationals Odds, Picks
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +155 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -190 |
I bet nobody expected to see the Nationals ahead of the Mets in the standings before the season. New York has really disappointed this year and managed just nine wins during May, the fewest in the league.
Washington has won six of its last 10 games including series wins against Seattle and Atlanta. Now, it is a -115 moneyline favorite at home against New York. See below my full Mets vs Nationals pick and prediction for the series opener on Monday, June 3.
New York Mets
Tyler Megill was able to earn a spot in the rotation to begin the 2024 season but landed on the injured list after just one start with a shoulder strain. He returned two weeks ago and after easing into his first outing, he dazzled in his last start. Megill pitched seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers, striking out nine batters and allowing just three hits.
In his previous three seasons, Megill has had an ERA above 4.50 in each season and projection systems see him as a 4.80-4.90 type of pitcher. Throughout his career, Megill has allowed a ton of hard contact, has struggled with command, and hasn’t generated many strikeouts.
While still a very small sample size, his 31.3% strikeout rate through three starts would be a significant jump from the 18.5% mark he posted last season. If he can keep that up, it will go along to help to mediate the damage from the hard contact he allows.
New York’s offense has been about as average as it comes. They rank 17th in wOBA and 18th in runs. JD Martinez is the only player on the Mets with an OPS above .800.
Washington Nationals
MacKenzie Gore is a guy I have been super high on since he came up through the Padres system and he appears to finally have put it all together. He was drafted third overall in 2017 by the Padres. He was ranked as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball in 2020, ahead of guys like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, and Tarik Skubal.
After making just 16 appearances for San Diego in 2022, Gore was traded to the Nationals as part of the haul for Juan Soto. He managed a 4.42 ERA and 5.20 xERA in 2023 and really struggled with his location, allowing too many pitches over the middle of the plate.
Gore has taken a massive step forward this year and looks like that top prospect again. He has a 2.91 ERA through 11 starts and a 3.49 xERA. Gore has nearly cut his barrel rate in half and is striking out more batters. He has managed to accomplish the rare feat of improving his control and lowering his walk rate, while also increasing his velocity.
Also included in that package for Soto was shortstop CJ Abrams and he is also having a breakout season. Abrams leads the Nats in hits, runs, doubles, triples, and home runs. This team also got a boost recently with Lane Thomas returning from injury after missing nearly a month.
Mets vs. Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
While I think this price is pretty fair, I am going to lean toward Washington here. Gore was a highly touted prospect and is now playing like one. His performance is here to stay and he is establishing himself as an elite starting pitcher in this league.
Megill has put together a couple of good starts, but he is still projected to be a back-end starting pitcher. We can expect his results to be more in-line with an ERA in the high-fours.
Behind Megill, the Mets’ bullpen is a mess. Over the last month, New York’s bullpen ranks 28th in reliever ERA. They lead the league with eight blown saves in the last month. This unit has a 6.55 ERA in the last two weeks.
On top of that, closer Edwin Diaz is on the injured list and this bullpen was forced into extended work yesterday. Six relievers pitched in yesterday's game, including all of their top arms.
The Mets probably have the better offense but the gap is not that big. I’m a big believer in Gore, so I will side with the starting pitcher advantage, and hope the Mets' bullpen continues to do Mets' bullpen things.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-122)
