Mets vs. Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+175 | 8 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -132 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -210 | 8 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +106 |
After two heartbreaking losses, the Mets will try and salvage something from this three-game set against their division rivals on Thursday when they take on Spencer Strider and the Braves.
With Justin Verlander going for the Mets, is there any reason to believe this could go the visitors' way?
Let's break it down in our Mets vs. Braves preview, which includes a betting prediction for the finale at Truist Park.
New York Mets
It seemed as if things were turning around for the Mets with their three-game sweep of the Phillies at Citi Field, but after turning around and dropping the next three to the Blue Jays, they've slipped back under .500 with two losses in Atlanta. They haven't been easy to take, either, considering the Mets led in both games before the Braves' other-worldly offense came roaring back.
It does seem as though New York will be in a particularly arduous spot considering its best hitter, Pete Alonso, will likely miss this game after being hit by a pitch on the wrist in last night's loss. Though X-rays came back negative, he is considered day-to-day with a bone scan scheduled on Thursday. That would put his status for Thursday into serious question.
Speaking of questions, is Justin Verlander OK? The 40-year-old now owns a 4.25 ERA through six starts, and even though he allowed just one run in his last outing, he did walk three and allow five hits over six frames.
You rarely see Verlander walk three in a start, and we've never seen the righty post an xERA of 3.72 in the Statcast era. His strikeout rate is also way down to 20.5%, but the good news is that he struck out eight in his last outing.
His .187 xBA in the start was also his lowest of the year. His hard-hit rate remains high, however, which could lead to further trouble.
Atlanta Braves
On the other side of the coin, we have one of the best pitchers in baseball going for Atlanta. Spencer Strider leads all qualified pitchers with a ridiculous 40.6% strikeout rate this season and finds himself in the top 8% of the league in expected batting average and expected ERA.
Walks have been an issue at times, particularly last time out against the Diamondbacks when he issued four free passes, but outside of that there are no discernable weaknesses in his game.
The Braves stand fourth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and second in the last seven days. In the last week, they've struck out in just 20.3% of their plate appearances and have walked in a decent 7.8% while holding a beefy .206 ISO.
Unlike the Mets, who will be without their best hitter, the Braves are not only fully staffed but dangerous from the top of the order to the bottom. It's been the likes of Orlando Arcia, Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna coming up huge in recent games, which is a pretty scary sight when you consider how good the top of the lineup is.
Mets vs. Braves Betting Pick
Without Alonso, a flat offense is going to look even flatter on Thursday. The Mets were able to negotiate some runs off of Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, but Strider will be a totally different story, particularly for a team striking out in over a quarter of their plate appearances.
I'm also loving this spot for the Braves offense against Verlander, who has pitched to contact more and been allowing an inordinate number of hard-hit balls. Atlanta has been very disciplined at the plate and has its strikeout rate down very low, putting the Braves in an advantageous spot.
I'll lay the runs in what should be a one-sided affair.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+108) |
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