Mets vs. Astros Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -105 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +170 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -115 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -200 |
Seeking some much-needed wins to get back on track, the Mets and Astros will send two of their best arms to the hill when they open up a three-game set in Houston on Monday night. Will Max Scherzer's struggles continue, or will he find some reprieve against a Houston team coming in on a four-game losing streak?
Let's get to answering that question in our Mets vs. Astros preview and prediction.
New York Mets
The Mets were able to return Pete Alonso to the lineup on Sunday, and while the offense did produce seven runs they ultimately lost their second straight to slip to 33-38. Pitching continues to be an issue for New York, which owns the fifth-worst staff over the last 14 days with an unsightly 5.68 ERA.
Despite what you may think following a seven-run outburst, hitting has still been an issue for this team as well.
Most of the damage on Sunday came against Matt Liberatore, who may be one of the worst pitchers regularly working in the National League. On top of that, the body of work in the last two weeks has been pretty poor. Sure, they've registered a 106 wRC+, but the Mets are still hitting fewer ground balls than normal and striking out at a 22.8% clip, which is a bit unlike them.
Their walk rate also remains pretty low at 8.6%, signifying nothing has really changed with their approach. They are eager to get the ball in play, though with more fly balls the contact hasn't quite been the same as we've been used to seeing in the last couple of years.
Speaking of which, Scherzer certainly hasn't been the guy we've grown accustomed to seeing. His 4.45 ERA is a career worst to this point, rivaling his early years in the big leagues. His 3.62 xERA offers a bit of hope, though with a 25.3% strikeout rate it's natural to see his numbers taper off just a bit.
The increased contact hasn't been very favorable, either, with a 38.1% hard-hit rate which is by far Scherzer's worst ever tracked by Statcast, along with a 10% barrel rate. All that's amounted to a .369 xwOBA on contact, which is worse than the league average.
Houston Astros
On the other side of this one, young Hunter Brown has been pretty damn good. The rookie right-hander now owns a 3.35 ERA through 13 starts, and while there have been a couple of speedbumps along the way, his body of work is pretty impressive to this point in the year.
His career walk rate still sits just below 9%, dating back to his brief stint in the bigs last year, and it's fair to say that's certainly a pain point for Brown with six free passes in his last two starts.
With that being said, Brown's pitched to a 27% career strikeout rate, which is pretty impressive considering he's been merely average in the swing-and-miss department and hasn't been amazing at getting hitters to chase out of the zone. His curveball has generated a solid 30.4% whiff rate, however, and has been the prevailing reason for his strikeouts.
As for the offense, well, it's been a roller coaster. Houston is coming in on a four-game losing streak after being swept at the hands of the Reds, but it has still looked competent at the plate of late.
In the last two weeks the Astros own just a 97 wRC+, but strikeouts are down to 21.1% and their ISO is a decent .172.
Mets vs. Astros Betting Pick
Scherzer's struggles are all too real, and against a disciplined team which has been cutting down the strikeouts, I really don't like the matchup for him. Houston has remained strong in the power department, and with Scherzer's barrel rate at an all-time high, I think the long ball could really burn him here.
I also love the matchup here for Brown, considering the Mets are antsy at the plate right now and striking out more than normal. That's been the prevailing force behind his solid season, and with the amount of balls New York likes to get in play and its low walk rate, I don't think he should have many issues with free passes here.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-120) |
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