Marlins vs. Reds Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -154 | 10.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +104 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 10.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -125 |
It has been a roller-coaster season for the Reds. They started the year 19-27 and at the bottom of the NL Central standings. Then they took off, going 31-14 to earn first-place honors heading into the All-Star Break.
But since the break, the Reds are 9-14 and have slipped to third place in the Central. Cincinnati enters Monday’s series opener on a six-game losing streak on the heels of a sweep to the lowly Nationals.
The Marlins are also in the midst of a deep slide. Since the start of July, they are 10-20. Miami has dropped four straight after getting swept by the Rangers over the weekend.
As much as they have struggled, both are in the thick of the playoff race. The Reds are tied for the final NL Wild Card spot and the Marlins are just a half-game behind them.
The good news is that one losing streak will end on Monday. The question is whose will it be?
Miami Marlins
Eury Perez opened the year as the Marlins' No.1 prospect and No. 13 in all of baseball. He made his MLB debut on May 12 and has enjoyed immediate success.
After 11 starts, the 20-year-old Perez holds a 2.36 ERA. His xERA is a tick higher at 3.50, but he throws a fastball that averages 97.6 mph and he has a devastating slider. He also throws the occasional curveball (13.7%) and changeup (11%). He has thrown his changeup 97 times and has yet to allow a hit off it.
Eury Perez strikes out the side in the first.
Ruiz on the slider
Noda on the fastball
Brown on the curveballVelocity maxed at 100.1 mph pic.twitter.com/nPh1uKsveI
— Isaac Azout (@IsaacAzout) June 3, 2023
Perez, who is making his first start since July 6 (load management), has the best ERA among any rookie pitcher with at least seven starts. He has a 10.29 K/9 rate and one of the league’s best Whiff rates. He has been especially dominant against left-handed batters, allowing just a .179 average and .278 wOBA with an 11.14 K/9 against lefties.
For the majority of the season, the Marlins offense has been led by the two-headed monster of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler.
Arraez provides the contact (.375 average) and Soler provides the power (26 home runs). However, they should get some help going forward. The Fish added Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the trade deadline, and Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia recently returned from the injured list.
Cincinnati Reds
Another rookie will oppose Perez in Brandon Williamson. The tall left-hander began the season as the Reds’ No. 8 prospect. He debuted just four days after Perez and has made 14 starts.
However, Williamson has not had the same immediate success; he has a 4.85 ERA and a concerning 5.72 xERA.
The issue with Williamson has been the same at every level of his career: command. After posting a BB/9 rate higher than 5.20 in the last two seasons in the minors, he has continued to struggle with walks.
He has issued 29 free passes in 14 games and has a 10.1% walk rate compared to just a 19.1% strikeout rate. When he does find the zone, opponents have a 43.3% hard-hit rate and a .364 xwOBA. More than half of his pitches fall outside the strike zone and opponents are able to sit on both his fastball and cutter when he does locate them.
Led by star rookie Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati’s offense has been exciting to watch. The Reds rank 10th with a .324 wOBA, but since the All-Star break, they have fallen to 23rd with just a .303 mark.
Marlins vs. Reds Betting Pick
In a battle between rookie pitchers, Perez has a big advantage over Williamson.
Perez has held opponents to one run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. He has a fastball that can touch 100 mph and a nasty slider that generates a 42.4 Whiff%.
Williamson has an xERA nearly a full run higher than his ERA and has shown a troubling combination of shaky command and hard contact.
Both teams have really struggled over the past few weeks. They rank 23rd and 24th in wOBA since the All-Star break. However, the Marlins have been much better against left-handed pitchers, ranking third with a .358 wOBA and 121 wRC+.
The Reds will be in the worse split against a right-handed pitcher. They have a .321 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against righties this season, and their wRC+ against right-handers has dropped to 78 over the last month.
Even when the starters depart, the Marlins’ advantage only increases. Cincinnati ranks 28th in bullpen xFIP and 27th in K-BB%. Miami’s bullpen is fifth in reliever xFIP and seventh in K-BB%.
Everything points to Miami being able to stop the slide behind its star pitcher.
Pick: Marlins ML (-140 or better) |
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