Marlins vs. Rays Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -167 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -165 | 7.5 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +135 |
Remember when the Rays were on pace to be one of the greatest teams of all time? After starting the year a ridiculous 23-6, Tampa Bay has looked like a different team over the past month.
Tampa Bay is 5-14 in July and has fallen 1.5 games behind the Orioles for first place in the AL East.
Miami has also had a rough July. After going 19-8 in June, the Marlins have been swimming upstream. They’re just 6-13 this month and have lost nine of their past 10 games.
Miami Marlins
Speaking of dramatic declines … what has happened to Sandy Alcantara? Last year’s Cy Young Award winner is coming off a season where he posted a 2.28 ERA and allowed just a .288 xwOBA.
This year, Alcantara has managed just a 4.70 ERA and a 4.34 xERA. His strikeout rate is down to 19.9% and his hard-hit rate is up to 41%. He has allowed a .323 xwOBA and his elite ground-ball rate also down a notch.
In 32 starts last year, Alcantara allowed at least four runs just six times. Through 20 starts this season, he's surrendered four runs nine times. His changeup, which was his best pitch last year (a .146 average and .179 wOBA against), has been crushed to a .317 average and .360 wOBA against.
Miami’s offense is pretty much a two-man show. Luis Arraez provides the average and Jorge Soler provides the power. Arraez is basically a cheat code, batting .375 and leading the league in hits. He’s got more multi-hit games than hitless games this season.
Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Eflin is never going to be named as one of baseball’s elite pitchers, but he's about as consistent as they come. He has produced an ERA below 4.20 in each of the past five seasons.
In his first season with Tampa Bay, Eflin is having perhaps the best season of his career. He has gone 11-5 with 3.36 ERA and an even better 3.13 xERA. His command is elite, as it has been his whole career. He has produced a 1.28 BB/9 rate, the second-lowest mark in the league.
Eflin has a strikeout rate of 25.7%, a 5% bump from last year, and his .277 xwOBA is the best of his career.
Tampa Bay began the year on fire. The Rays offense was on pace for the best wRC+ in league history, but it has gone ice cold lately. In fact, the Rays rank 29th in the league in scoring and wOBA in July.
Marlins vs. Rays Betting Pick
These offenses have been two of the league’s worst over the past month. That being said, they both have plenty of capable hitters up and down the lineup. Especially the Rays, who rank third in the league in wRC+, despite how bad they have been over the past month.
Alcantara has been a shell of the Cy Young version we saw last season. His once reliable changeup has been crushed and he ranks in the bottom 40% of the league in xERA, xwOBA and hard-hit Rate. His strikeout rate has dropped below 20% and he's allowed three or more runs in over half of his starts.
Eflin has been great this season, but I still view him as more of a very good — not great — pitcher. He’s certainly above average, but he ranks outside the top 20% of the league in xERA and xwOBA, and his strikeout rate is in just the 66th percentile. Eflin pitches to contact, so his career high in barrel rate allowed is a tad concerning.
Backing these offenses in their current state is nerve racking, but here's hoping these offenses quickly return to form. Bet over 7.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Over 7.5 |
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