Marlins vs Astros Odds, Pick & Prediction (7/10)
| Miami Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -110 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-225 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -110 |
The Miami Marlins and Houston Astros will face off at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday in the second of a three-game set. The Astros pulled out a close 4-3 victory on Tuesday.
Miami has had a tough season. After a historically bad start, the Marlins have rebounded to 32-59, but it won't make a difference — they're 15 games back from an NL wild-card spot.
Surprisingly, the Astros started the season cold, and it looked like they might have been out of the race in April. They've rebounded, sitting only two games behind Seattle for the AL West lead at 47-44.
Houston is a heavy favorite tonight at -225, and there is an over/under of 8 runs. Let’s dive into my Marlins vs Astros prediction.
Miami Marlins
Bryan Hoeing takes the mound for the Marlins. Typically pitching out of the bullpen, Hoeing made his first start of the season on July 5th, pitching three innings and allowing one run against the White Sox.
I wouldn’t expect Hoeing to provide much length, given he hasn't made too many starts. He'll more than likely pitch two to three innings before the bullpen takes over.
Hoeing is a sinker-slider specialist with only 79 strikeouts in 106 MLB innings across three years. He has a 21.9% whiff rate and 22.2% strikeout rate this year, both below league average. He has only walked 6.7% of his batters.
Hoeing allows hard contact more than you would want, allowing a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 90.4 mph average exit velocity. His 43.8% ground ball rate is also below the rate you would expect from someone of his archetype. Hoeing has a 1.99 ERA this season but a 5.15 expected ERA, indicating some good fortune.
The Marlins’ offense has been among the worst in the league. They rank last in wRC+, wOBA, OBP, ISO, and walk rate.
Miami ranks 23rd in hard-hit rate, 22nd in barrel rate, and 23rd in exit velocity. A large part of their problem is that they have the highest ground ball rate in the league — Miami has a ground ball rate of 50.3% with the next closest team at 46.7%.
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros. The 30-year-old lefty has a 3.84 ERA and 4.21 xERA this season over 91 1/3 IP.
Framber is far from a strikeout pitcher, ranking in just the 27th percentile in strikeout rate and 41st percentile in whiff rate among qualified pitchers. Instead, he excels at inducing ground balls. Opposing batters have hit grounders 62.2% of the time against Valdez this season, putting him in the 98th percentile.
He has done well to limit barrels, ranking in the 90th percentile, but ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and second percentile in average exit velocity allowed. This profile may seem unsustainable, but Valdez has been doing this for seven seasons with the Astros now, as the sinker is his main asset.
The Astros’ offense has carried them through much of the season. They rank eighth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA, 11th in ISO, sixth in OBP, and seventh in slugging.
Marlins vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Astros are huge favorites, but I believe that is justified based on the matchup.
Houston’s strong offense will get to face Bryan Hoeing and the Miami bullpen for much of this game. Hoeing hasn’t pitched as well this season as his ERA may suggest, and he will have a tough matchup against Houston.
Conversely, Valdez has it about as easy as he could ask for. Miami’s offense has been putrid this season, and its weaknesses play right into his hands — I’d expect a ton of ground balls in this game.
I usually don’t love betting big favorites, but I'm all over the Astros in this matchup.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+100, FanDuel) | Play to -1.5 (-115)
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