Mariners vs. Yankees Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +152 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 +184 |
After two very compelling performances from their pitching staff, the Yankees will go for a three-game sweep of the Mariners on Thursday night in the Bronx. Will offense continue to be at a premium in the finale, or can these offenses wake up?
Let's break it all down in our Mariners vs. Yankees preview and prediction.
Seattle Mariners
It's hard to take this Mariners offense seriously. This is a team that, for the season, has struck out in 25.8% of its plate appearances. They're 20th in wRC+, 21st in home runs hit and 20th in Isolated Power overall. They hit a decent amount of fly balls, but ultimately there's not enough contact being made, and on top of that Seattle's xBA sits at a lowly .236, which ranks 19th.
So, it's pretty easy to call this a below-average offense given that's where they rank in nearly every category. Things have been better of late with the Mariners posting a 100 wRC+ this month, but that still puts them smack dab in the middle of the league. That stretch has still carried with it a 25.7% strikeout rate as well.
On the hill for the Mariners in this one is Bryan Woo, who has been an interesting case to this point in his major-league career. He's pitched just 12 1/3 innings but has already racked up 20 strikeouts. This isn't anything new; Woo owned a 34.3% strikeout rate in Double-A before getting the call straight to the big leagues, and he had a strikeout rate above 31% in A-ball the season before.
Woo is not much of a ground ball pitcher, but it doesn't really matter given these strikeout numbers. The righty has been burned by three home runs in his last two starts and was lit up in his debut, giving up six runs on seven hits in two innings. He's certainly not immune to some bad outings, and while his 2.60 xERA is nice to look at, we have to consider his incredibly small sample size.
New York Yankees
The Yankees will send Domingo German to the hill on Thursday, and like Woo he's a very interesting case.
I'm of the belief that German is a good pitcher. He does enter the day with a 4.30 ERA and 4.55 xERA, but for the most part he's been one of the Yankees' most reliable players. He was rocked in Boston last week, but prior to that had posted a 2.54 ERA in five May starts and had allowed just two earned runs across 12 2/3 innings in June.
German's .251 xBA and .434 xSLG aren't good numbers, but it's hard to call them terrible. He has also shown the ability to miss bats, bringing his strikeout rate back up to 23% this season. If he's able to rack up strikeouts, the troubles with hard-hit balls and barrels won't be nearly as costly.
The Yankees' offense ranks 28th in the league with a 75 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but their approach has been better over the last two nights. Their walk numbers have at least stabilized after an awful stretch, and the team is rocking a .237 ISO with just a 15.6% strikeout rate in this series.
Mariners vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Things are finally looking up for the Yankees on offense right now, and I think things should continue to trend in the right direction with Woo on the hill Thursday.
It's always a good idea to fade a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, but I like this spot a lot given Woo's lack of big-league (and Triple-A) experience and his issues with the gopher ball. On top of that, the Yankees' improvements in the strikeout department and approach at the plate should lead to success.
On the other side of this one, German has been at the very least an above-average strikeout arm, and the Mariners absolutely love to strike out. I think Seattle should help him out here and fall victim to the sweep.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline |
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