Mariners vs. Yankees Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 7 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -194 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -134 | 7 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +160 |
The New York Yankees will try to break out of their four-game losing skid on Tuesday as they play host to the Seattle Mariners in the first of a three-game set.
The Yankees are fresh off getting swept by the Red Sox in Boston, and they have – in general – struggled of late, dropping eight of their last 11.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have won two straight series, but they really have just been the epitome of a .500 team this year, basically trading wins and losses without any big streaks all season.
The pitching matchup on Tuesday is two elite starters, with the No. 6 ERA in the AL going up against the No. 11 ERA in the AL, in the form of Gerrit Cole taking on George Kirby.
With the wind also blowing in at Yankee Stadium today, runs may well be at a premium, but let's take a deeper look into what plays stand out for bettors on Tuesday.
Seattle Mariners
As noted in our intro, Kirby possesses the 11th-best ERA in the AL this season, but he's even better when looking at some of his advanced metrics.
Unlike many of the top ERA pitchers right now (including his opposition on Tuesday), Kirby actually has the xERA/FIP/xFIP to back up his production so far. In fact, by FIP, only five qualified pitchers in the AL have been better than Kirby this season.
A good portion of that is his amazing ability to limit walks. Of the 243([) pitchers across all of baseball with at least 30 innings pitched, not a single one does as good a job as Kirby at limiting free passes.
In fact, were he to maintain this walk rate for the season, it would be the lowest walk rate from a qualified pitcher since Carlos Silva in 2005!
So how is this actionable? Well, the first market to look at would be pitcher walks, of course. The books have made a strange decision in that they have hung a 1.5-walks line despite Kirby not reaching two walks all season.
At Betway, bettors can take Kirby under 1.5 walks -189. That is an implied 65.4 percent, and while most folks don't like laying that sort of juice, it's amazing value. I even like the -245 odds at DraftKings and the -268 odds at Caesars for this prop.
New York Yankees
Part of the reason I like this prop angle for Kirby is because of the offense he's facing as well. The Yankees of 2023 are not your grandfather's Yankees or even your slightly older twin sister's Yankees.
For a team that historically drew tons and tons of walks (remember those five-hour-long Red Sox games?), they have really abandoned that ship this season. After ranking first in baseball in walk rate just last year, they now rank 24th.
Against righties, that walk rate is even worse, coming in 27th in all of baseball.
Facing off with Kirby is Gerrit Cole, who is among the frontrunners for AL Cy Young right now thanks to a 2.75 ERA that would make his lowest season ERA since his Cy Young runner-up in 2019.
However, there's a fair amount of reason to expect some regression from Cole over the summer months. For all of Cole's strengths, he struggles with the longball, and it's not as if Yankee Stadium is a home stadium to help with that issue.
However, this season his home run rate allowed has plummeted, but for no good reason. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity allowed are right in line with career norms, and his groundball rate is actually down from seasons past.
Cole is a guy I am going to be looking to fade in general, and today is no exception.
Mariners vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The George Kirby walk prop is my favorite play, and it's my favorite play I've had in a preview in a while.
It's very juicy, but by implied probability, it's a phenomenal bet still.
I also like the Mariners on both the first-five and full-game moneylines. Cole is a pitcher I will be targeting for regression, and the Yankees pen is a similar story. The Mariners bullpen is far more legitimate, and both are coming off off-days, so they should be fresh.
The Picks: George Kirby under 1.5 walks (-189 at Betway) | Mariners F5 moneyline (+110 at DraftKings) | Mariners full-game ML (+102 at FanDuel)
Pick: Mariners F5 moneyline (+102) |
