Mariners vs. Tigers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -115 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +135 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -105 | 8.5 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -155 |
What if I told you that this matchup will feature two of the hottest teams in baseball? Would you believe me? Well, it's true, as the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers come into this series opener each having won seven of their last 10 games.
Another thing that makes this matchup unique is that it will feature two left-handed starters. Marco Gonzales will get the ball for Seattle, and Matthew Boyd will oppose him for Detroit.
With both these teams trending in the right direction and two crafty lefties on the mound, what's the best way to play this Mariners vs. Tigers matchup? Let's take a closer look and find a betting pick.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' hot streak has not been spurred by their offense, as they rank just 15th in wRC+ and 19th in wOBA over the last week. However, that doesn't mean we can discount their lineup, as they have four hitters with above-average hard-hit rates, and that doesn't include Ty France, who has become a hit machine.
On paper, Seattle appears to have a good matchup with Boyd on the mound as the lefty enters with a 5.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, a closer look reveals that Boyd's been a tad unfortunate as he's been excellent at limiting hard contact.
Boyd ranks in the top 15 percent of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed. That stems from his ability to get hitters to swing at his pitches out of the zone, as he's also in the top 20 percent in chase rate.
Those metrics show how effective Boyd has been, and he's due for a good outing, as his xERA sits at 3.77.
Detroit Tigers
When you look at the Tigers' recent stretch, their lineup has been seeing the ball well. Detroit ranks 10th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA over the last seven days. They are in line to keep rolling at the dish as they have a great matchup with Gonzales on the mound.
Gonzales comes into this matchup with a 4.70 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and unlike his counterpart, he's not due for significant positive regression. While the Mariners' lefty has also done a good job of limiting hard contact, his inability to miss bats often creates traffic on the bases, and that has led to an influx of runs.
On top of the Tigers' hot streak, Detroit has proven to be solid against lefties as it ranks 18th in wRC+ and 19th in wOBA on the season. Those splits are significant jumps from the Tigers' overall ranks.
Mariners vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Everything we have gone through certainly points to backing the Tigers at home here tonight, but the market has also made that read, and much of the plus-money value on Detroit in the first five is gone.
However, we don't have to limit ourselves to just the first five, as we can target Gonzales directly. Gonzales is often left out to dry despite giving up loads of contact, and that is where our angle comes in for the fifth and sixth innings.
Once Gonzales begins to tire from the traffic on the bases, Detroit will have opportunities to score in the middle innings. Gonzales has allowed at least three runs in three of his six starts this season, and given the Tigers' recent play, they should add a fourth tally to that over.
Pick: Marco Gonzales, over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
