The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of this National League Division Series. First pitch is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. on Wednesday evening at PETCO Park and the game will be broadcast on FS1.
My Dodgers vs Padres prediction and NLDS Game 4 picks are below.
With a 2-1 series lead, the Padres will hand the ball to right-hander Dylan Cease.
Dodgers vs Padres odds have San Diego as a -148 moneyline favorite and Los Angeles as a +126 underdog. The over/under can be found between at 7.5 or 8, depending on the book. The Padres are +140 to cover the run line (-1.5) while the Dodgers are -170 (+1.5).
Dodgers vs Padres Predictions
- Dodgers vs Padres pick:Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to +100)
My Padres vs. Dodgers best bet for Game 4 is on Cease's strikeout prop, where I see value at +105. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Probable Starting Pitchers
| TBD (LAD) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| — | W-L | 14-11 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.8 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 3.47 / 3.32 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 3.10 / 3.44 |
| — | WHIP | 1.07 |
| — | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| — | GB% | 40.3% |
| — | Stuff+ | 121 |
| — | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori's Dodgers vs Padres Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Dodgers Could Struggle Offensively
Los Angeles has yet to announce a starting pitcher prior to Wednesday's Game 4, which is why I am instead looking at the prop market. Specifically, I am looking to back Cease in the strikeout department.
This is not necessarily a fade of the Dodgers lineup, which is obviously one of the best in baseball. However, this group has struggled against Cease, at least in the strikeout department.
Through 112 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Los Angeles lineup possesses a fade-worthy 31.3% strikeout rate and 35.5% whiff rate. Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts did the most damage to San Diego in Game 3, but those two are a combined 3-23 against Cease with three singles and 10 strikeouts.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Expect Cease to Bounce Back
Cease put together a strong campaign in 2024. Through 33 starts, he posted a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as Cease boasts a 3.34 xERA and .213 xBA. As mentioned above, we are going to back the right-hander in the prop market as he also ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
Cease had about as bad of a start as you will get out of him in Game 1 of this series, surrendering five runs on six hits in under four innings of work. Despite the uncharacteristically poor performance, he still racked up five punchouts, which would be enough to once again get him over tonight's total.
Cease has now accumulated five or more strikeouts in four of his five career starts against Los Angeles.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
Even when Cease was pulled about as early as possible after having a bad start, the man still went over this strikeout number in Game 1. Meanwhile, his ceiling is far higher as the right-hander has found himself in double-digits for strikeouts numerous times both this season and previously against the Dodgers.
I project a much stronger outing from Cease at home than what we saw in Game 1, and his strikeout numbers should also coincide with that projection. While I am just playing this prop straight, a ladder play on his alternate strikeout lines projects well.
Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on Cease's strikeout prop at +105 via BetMGM, a line that is eight-to-17 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 at BetMGM | Play to +100)
Moneyline
I like San Diego to close out the series, but don't have any interest in backing that line until we have a confirmed starting pitcher for Los Angeles.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
Same philosophy as above.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but once again, there is too much uncertainty without a confirmed starter for the Dodgers.
Pick: Pass
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
Padres Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home
Dodgers vs Padres Weather
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