The two best teams in the National League will square off on Tuesday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies at Dodger Stadium.
Philadelphia (66-46) enters Tuesday with a half-game lead over the Dodgers (66-47) for the first seed in the NL postseason bracket. Los Angeles pulled a game closer in Monday's series opener, winning 5-3 to keep its NL West lead at five games. The Phillies find themselves in a similar spot, leading the NL East by 5 1/2 games over the Braves.
The Dodgers and Phillies have been even for much of the year and today looks to be no different.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds for Tuesday have the moneyline as a pick'em (-110/-110) with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o /-115u) as Clayton Kershaw squares off against Cristopher Sanchez. Kershaw is looking to rebound after a disastrous start against the Padres in which he allowed sevens and didn't register a strikeout.
Here is my Phillies vs Dodgers prediction and pick based on the latest Tuesday MLB odds.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.36 / 3.69 | ERA /xERA | 5.87 / 4.51 |
| 2.75 / 3.19 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47 / 4.93 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.96 |
| 13.4% | K-BB% | 7.3% |
| 58.1% | GB% | 35.5% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Betting Preview for Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick
Dodgers Betting Preview: Is Clayton Kershaw Cooked?
Clayton Kershaw will make his third start of the season tonight. Through his first two starts, he hasn’t exceeded four innings pitched and has allowed three or less runs in each.
In this short sample, this puts Kershaw’s ERA at 5.87, with an xERA of 4.51 and a 5.01 SIERA.
With a sample this small and Kershaw coming back from injury, it’s hard to gain any insight as to what to expect from him. His average velocity on his four-seamer sits at just 90 mph compared to 90.7 last season. His other pitches are also slower across the board.
Kershaw’s Stuff+ this season is 99 (down from 101 last season) as he's been on a downward trajectory across each of the last five campaigns.
One big difference so far this season is Kershaw’s strikeout rate is down to 14.6%; it was still 26.2% last year. His overall whiff rate is 20.5%, so we may see these strikeouts tick up a little bit, but the days of Kershaw running a high strikeout rate may be over.
The Dodgers have been one of the scariest teams in the league offensively. They're third in wRC+, fourth in wOBA, fourth in SLG, fourth in ISO and second in OBP. Los Angeles ranks second in the league in walk rate and 18th in strikeout rate.
The Dodgers rank sixth in hard-hit rate, seventh in barrel rate and fourth in average exit velocity. They're fourth in xSLG, third in xwOBA and fifth in xwOBACON.
They also hit the ball on the ground at the lowest rate in the league, which will be important for today’s matchup.
Also relevant to today’s opponent, the Dodgers rank second in wOBA and first in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, so they should be able to handle their matchup with Cristopher Sanchez from a platoon aspect.
Phillies Betting Preview: Phils Rake vs. Lefties
Sanchez has started more games this season than he ever had before in his MLB career. In his fourth season with the Phillies, he has 120.2 innings pitched, a career-high. Sanchez has a 3.36 ERA, 3.69 xERA and 3.59 SIERA on the year.
Sanchez has only 98 strikeouts and a 19.6% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Outside of strikeouts though, he's been great. Sanchez ranks in the 77th percentile in walk rate, 84th percentile in barrel rate, 77th percentile in hard-hit rate and 73rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
He’s a heavy ground-ball pitcher, ranking in the 97th percentile with a 59.2% ground ball rate.
The Phillies’ offense ranks ninth in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA. They've hit lefties better than just about anyone, ranking first in wOBA, second in wRC+, first in OBP and first in SLG against southpaws.
Philadelphia ranks 12th in hard-hit rate, 14th in barrel rate and 19th in exit velocity. The Phillies walk at the sixth-highest rate in baseball and strike out at a rate near league average. They're eighth in xwOBA and ninth in xwOBACON despite average statcast numbers. That's because they hit a high rate of line drives and get plenty of men on base via the walk.
Our Best Bet & Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction: Take the First 5 Inning Over
Both of these teams crush left-handed pitching and with both starters being lefties, I think that this game could lend itself to a decent offensive showing.
Kershaw is an enigma at this point, but his stuff appears down across the board.
Sanchez has been good this season, but the Dodgers' offense is a tough matchup. I think that their lack of ground balls may end up impacting Sanchez as that takes away his bread and butter.
My favorite pick for this game, for the reasons mentioned, is over 4.5 runs for the first five innings. Both teams should have a chance to partake in the scoring with their strong offenses.
Phillies vs Dodgers Pick: F5 Over 4.5 Total Runs (-110 at DraftKings, Play to -115)
Moneyline
I trust Los Angeles’ offense the most out of any unit in this game, but I don’t want to be left holding the Kershaw bag. I don’t want to take a side in this matchup myself, but if I had to, Sanchez has been uber reliable, and I’d want to take him over the unknown of Kershaw.
Run Line (Spread)
Going along with my moneyline pick, I’d also take the Phillies on the run line if I had to. I still don’t have a strong lean, but there's some blowup potential with Kershaw if the Phillies can get to him early.
Over/Under
The over has hit in 31 of the Dodgers’ 55 home games. For each of these teams, four of their last five games have hit the over as well.
Going along with my favorite bet of the game, I think that this could prove to be a higher-scoring affair. The over/under is currently 8.5, but both of these offenses are more than capable of sending this game over the full game total.
