Dodgers vs Astros Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Monday, May 4

The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.

The Dodgers are favored by -207 on the moneyline and by -131 on the run line (-1.5). The Astros are +169 on the moneyline and +109 on the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 9 runs.

Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.

Dodgers vs Astros Prediction

• Dodgers vs Astros Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Walks (-114)

My Dodgers vs Astros best bet is on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to issue two or more walks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Monday, May 4

8:10 p.m. ET

SportsNet LA

Dodgers Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -131	9 102o / -122u	-207

Astros Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 +109	9 102o / -122u	+169

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Dodgers vs Astros moneyline: Dodgers -207, Astros +169
• Dodgers vs Astros over/under: 9 (+102o / -122u)
• Dodgers vs Astros spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-131), Astros +1.5 (+109)

Dodgers vs Astros MLB Betting Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been without Mookie Betts for several weeks already, and they're getting a career-worst year offensively from Shohei Ohtani. And yet, they're 21-13 and having no trouble carving up the competition on their way to another division title.

They'll send one of their three aces, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to the bump tonight to take on an Astros team that can hit (top five in the league in run scoring) but hasn't been able to pitch a lick (league-worst ERA near six!).

Yamamoto hasn't faced much trouble this year with a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but it hasn't been the most convincing trip to those strong ratios. His K% is below 22%, down seven points from his career mark entering this year.

The one thing he's improved at this year is the walks. He's taken the BB% down from 8.6% last year to 6.1% this year.

And that's an interesting stat, because Yamamoto is out there chucking his splitter 31% of the time. That pitch has a 45% Ball% on it, a very high number. It's not that high for a splitter, but it's a really high number for your most commonly thrown pitch. His overall ball rate is 36%, which would correspond to a walk rate around 9%, yet he's avoided ball four at a career-best rate.

The way he's done that is by hitting the zone 61% of the time in three-ball counts. The splitter drops to 6.5% usage in those counts. He's mostly four-seamers and cutters, and he's able to combine those two for a ball rate well below 30%.

We're taking an educated guess on the Astros lineup, but we know it will be pretty right-handed. 77% of the Astros plate appearances this year have come from a right-handed batter, the highest rate in the league. Even against left-handed pitching.

They're the most right-handed lineup in the league, even against right-handed pitching (75% of PAs from a RHB; the second-highest mark in the league is almost 10 points lower than that — this is a hugedisparity).

Including last year, Yamamoto sports a 29% K% and a 2.90 SIERA against right-handed hitters. Those batters have homered just 11 times off of him, good for one homer every 39 PAs. A very good mark for the Japanese righty.

So we're going to see plenty of splitters, and probably not a lot of hard contact coming from the Astros bats in this one. This should be considered a very good matchup for Yamamoto.

There's one bat to work around in the Astros lineup for a right-handed pitcher, and that's Yordan Alvarez. Remove his bat from the stat calculations, and the Astros OPS drops from .783 to .744.

Two points to make on this spot.

1. We're very likely to see Yamamoto's walk rate come up as the season progresses. His ball rate is no different than what it's been in the past, but his walk rate is more than two points lower. That's grounds for regression.
2. Same story with Yordan Alvarez. He's seen a super high 43% Ball% this year, and yet he has just a 10.9% BB% to show for it. There's no other threatening lefty behind him, so I think Yamamoto would be wise to be very, very careful with Yordan tonight.

Houston Astros

Sharing the rubber with Yamamoto is Steven Okert, at least to begin the game. Okert's a left-handed reliever who has maxed out at 1.2 innings this year.

The Astros bullpen has given up 101 earned runs in 140.1 innings this year. That's a 6.48 ERA (note: that stat looks at non-starters who have pitched, not necessarily a strict stat just on their bullpen). It's a horrible pitching staff and a horrible bullpen.

Because of the mishmash of pitchers the Astros will throw out there tonight, we can't really zoom in on any particular matchup for the Dodgers' bats.

However, we should point out that the home park is a difference-maker in this one. Daikin Park is extremely friendly to right-handed pull hitters.

If you pull a fly ball as a right-handed hitter there, you've got as good a chance for a homer as you'll find in all of Major League Baseball.

So, who are those right-handed pull hitters for LA? We'd normally be highlighting Tommy Edman (22% Air Pull% as RHB) and Mookie Betts (20%), but neither of them is healthy right now.

Andy Pages has a respectable mark at 16% air pull, but that's barely above the league average, so there really isn't a super boosted up spot for home run hitting due to the park factor in this one. But it was worth checking.

Dodgers vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis

Let's deal with the data we know about. I expect the two walk rates featured in this game to trend north. That's Yamamoto and Yordan Alvarez.

We can also take advantage of the fact that Yamamoto will be facing a severely right-handed lineup in this game. That's a slight boost in K% for him.

My favorite bets:

• Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks (+138, DraftKings)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Walks (-114, Underdog)
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+123, DraftKings)

Favorite Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Walks (-114, Underdog)