On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals (82-74) and Washington Nationals (69-87) kick off a three-game series in the nation’s capital. First pitch at Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN 2 and Bally Sports Kansas City. My Royals vs Nationals prediction for this series opener focuses on the first five innings (F5).
Kansas City is in a dead heat in the American League wild-card chase. The Royals and Detroit Tigers have identical records and occupy the second and third spots, but both are closely followed by the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners.
Royals vs Nationals odds for Tuesday have the Royals as -178 moneyline favorites; the over/under is 7 (-110/-110) for the pitching matchup between Cole Ragans and Mitchell Parker.
Royals vs Nationals Prediction
- Royals vs Nationals picks: Royals F5 -0.5 (-125 | Play to -135)
My Royals vs Nationals best bet is on the Royals F5 -0.5, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Nationals Odds & Prediction
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-178 | 7 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -105 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+150 | 7 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -115 |
- Royals-Nationals Moneyline: Royals -178 | Nats +150
- Royals-Nationals Total: Over/Under 7 (-110/110)
- Royals-Nationals Run Line: Royals -1.5 (-105) | Nats +1.5 (-115)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Royals at Nationals
| LHP Cole Ragans (KC) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 7-10 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.24 / 3.30 | ERA /xERA | 4.44 / 4.38 |
| 3.00 / 3.46 | FIP / xFIP | 3.90 / 4.22 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 40.0% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Cody Goggin’s Royals vs Nationals Preview
Royals Betting Preview: KC Turns to Its Ace
Cole Ragans will get the start for Kansas City.
Ragans has looked like a budding ace in his first full Major League season. Through 180 1/3 innings pitched, Ragans has a 3.24 ERA, 3.30 xERA, and a whopping 217 strikeouts. The southpaw ranks in the 91st percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and the 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
Outside of his great swing-and-miss stuff, Ragans’ other superpower has been his ability to avoid hard contact. Ragans ranks in the 80th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 78th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 67th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
The Royals have been slightly below league average on offense with a 98 wRC+. Among MLB offenses, they rank 14th in wOBA, 12th in SLG, 18th in OBP and 12th in ISO. The Royals are free-swinging, as they have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league but also the third-lowest walk rate.
Kansas City also ranks seventh in hard-hit rate, fourth in average exit velocity, and 19th in barrel rate.
Nationals Betting Preview: Mitchell Parker Flying Under the Radar
Washington’s starter will be 24-year-old lefty Mitchell Parker.
Parker has pitched well in his rookie season with a 4.44 ERA, 4.38 xERA, and 3.90 FIP in 146 innings. Parker has 128 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP on the year.
Among qualified pitchers, Parker ranks in the 23rd percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in strikeout rate — he's not a big swing-and-miss guy. However, he's an excellent command-and-control guy, ranking well above average in walk rate.
Parker has been below average in batted ball metrics, ranking in the 36th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 47th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 26th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He also ranks in the 22nd percentile in ground-ball rate this season.
The lineup ranks 24th in wRC+. They rank 23rd in wOBA, 24th in SLG, 28th in ISO, and 17th in OBP. They have the league's sixth-lowest strikeout rate and the seventh-lowest walk rate.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. They rank 27th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 26th in average exit velocity this year. The Nationals hit the ball on the ground 46.1% of the time, which is the second-highest rate in baseball.
Washington ranks 25th in the league in wRC+ against left-handers with a mark of 86 compared to 94 against right-handers. They are also 25th in wOBA and 27th in SLG from this side of the plate, with the third-lowest walk rate.
Royals vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis: F5 Spread
Cole Ragans has been excellent this season, and I don’t foresee that changing against the Nationals.
Washington doesn’t hit the ball hard, which plays into Ragans’ hand. He may not get as many strikeouts as he typically would, but his ability to generate soft contact should go a long way in this matchup.
On the other side, I am more concerned with Parker.
Parker has struggled with hard contact this season and doesn’t strike batters out. With Kansas City's uber-low strikeout rate, I think the Royals may should bash the rookie righty.
My favorite bet on this game is taking the Royals on the first five innings run line at -125.
I think the Royals can cover -0.5 in these first five innings with their ace on the mound against a mediocre offense in Washington.
Pick: Royals F5 -0.5 (-125, Drafkings) | Play to F5 -0.5 (-130)
Moneyline
Washington is 69-87 on the season but 36-39 at home, as the Nationals have been much better in Nationals Park.The Royals are only 37-38 on the road, as they have also won more in their home park.
I think the Royals win this game outright and would see some value at the current price of -170. These two teams have comparable bullpens, so with the better starter and better lineup, I like taking Kansas City to win this game.
Pick: Lean Royals moneyline (-170)
Run Line (Spread)
Both of these teams have been strong bets this season.
Washington is 86-70 against the spread overall and 41-34 ATS at home. Kansas City is 83-73 ATS this year, including 40-35 on the road.
I don’t have a specific lean on the spread in this game. I could see this playing out as a close game or a comfortable Royals victory, but I don’t have enough of an inclination to bet on this spread.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
Games at Nationals Park this season have leaned toward the under.
Unders are 39-36 in Washington this season and the Royals are 38-37 to the under on the road. At 7.5, I would lean towards the under in this game.
Neither of these offenses are setting the world on fire this year, and both starters have been solid this season. I don’t feel strongly about this either way and think the number is priced right, so I’ll be staying away from this total.
Pick: Lean Under
Royals-Nationals Key Injuries
Royals Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Michael Lorenzen | Left hamstring strain (15-day IL) |
| LHP Will Smith | Back spasms (15-day IL) |
Nationals News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS CJ Abrams | Demoted to Triple-A |
Royals-Nationals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 2-8 on the moneyline in their past 1o games.
- The Royals are 0-5 on the moneyline in their past five games.
- The Nationals are 4-6 on the moneyline in their past 10 games.
- The Nationals are 1-4 on the moneyline in their past five games.
