The St. Louis Cardinals host the Kansas City Royals on May 16, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ROYL.
The Cardinals are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Royals are -102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Royals vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Royals vs Cardinals Prediction
- Royals vs Cardinals Pick: Over 8.5 (-127 | Play to -135)
My Royals vs Cardinals best bet is Over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Cardinals Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +147 | 9 -115o / -105u | -102 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9 -115o / -105u | -118 |
- Royals vs Cardinals moneyline: Royals -102, Cardinals -118
- Royals vs Cardinals over/under: 9 (-115o / -105u)
- Royals vs Cardinals spread: Royals -1.5 (+147), Cardinals +1.5 (-178)
Royals vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| LHP Noah Cameron (KC) | Stat | LHP Kyle Leahy (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 5.55 / 6.40 | ERA / xERA | 4.31 / 6.00 |
| 4.31 / 4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 4.97 / 4.25 |
| 11% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 28% | GB% | 48.8% |
| .345 | BABIP | .328 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 106 | Location+ | 104 |
Royals vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Big Barrels and a Weak Arm
After an impressive rookie campaign in 2025, left-hander Noah Cameron has regressed significantly this season. Through his first seven starts, Cameron has a 5.55 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse. Entering this matchup, the southpaw owns a 6.42 xERA and a .305 xBA.
Cameron also ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The good news for Cameron is that he is likely to receive strong run support. This season, the Royals rank in the top half of the league in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Run Up the Score
Kansas City’s success at the plate is likely to continue against right-hander Kyle Leahy. A former reliever who has struggled to transition into a full-time starting role this year, Leahy owns a 4.31 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP through eight starts.
Like Cameron, Leahy’s analytics are among the worst in baseball. This season, Leahy ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Leahy is also likely to benefit from strong run support, similar to his counterpart. Entering this matchup, the Cardinals rank in the top 12 in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Royals vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
There is little reason not to like the over in this matchup. Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, both statistically and analytically.
Meanwhile, both lineups rank in the top half of the league in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. That leaves the bullpens, which are another weak point for both teams.
This season, both relief staffs rank in the bottom 10 in the league in ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-127 | Play to -135, DraftKings)
