The Miami Marlins host the Kansas City Royals on July 19, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Royals enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline, while the Marlins are +104 to pull off the upset. The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 8.5 total runs.
Find my Royals vs Marlins prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Royals vs Marlins Prediction
- Royals vs Marlins Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
My Marlins vs. Royals best bet is for both teams to go under the total with the best odds currently on BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Marlins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -111o / -109u | -125 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -163 | 8.5 -111o / -109u | +104 |
Royals vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Wacha (KCR) | Stat | RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-9 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.74/ 4.03 | ERA /xERA | 5.62/ 5.26 |
| 3.87/ 4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38/ 4.39 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 11.3% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 38.5% | GB% | 34.4% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Royals vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Michael Wacha is expected to start pitching for the Royals, and Cal Quantrill would begin on the home team's pitching spot.
Looking closely at this matchup, we see that Wacha has a 3.66 ERA in six games against the Marlins, while Quantrill has a 2.96 ERA in 10 career games (seven starts) vs. Kansas City.
Evan Abrams' "Public Fades Humidity" system fits perfectly for this game, as it capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45% to 95% — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40%, suggesting a low offensive rhythm.
Pick: Under 8.5
